Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
Moog Inc. (MOG-A)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$308.53-5.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.35 → 13.82 EPS · FY ending Sep 27, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MOG-A yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend growth and capital allocation discipline | A supporting condition in Moog Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Quarterly dividend >= $0.30 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.29 next year | Dividend per share: $0.30 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend >= $0.30 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 31, 20260.3 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and profitability. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance.
The market appears to have a neutral valuation stance on MOG-A, with expectations slightly above average compared to peers. The current pricing reflects a low level of fragility, indicating that the market does not fully account for potential execution risks.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued revenue growth and improved operating margins, as management has emphasized these priorities and delivered strong results. However, there is a mixed outlook on free cash flow generation, which may introduce some uncertainty.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for MOG-A. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could pose risks to MOG-A's growth trajectory.
Overall, MOG-A's position is supported by solid fundamentals, but it faces potential risks from sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company increased quarterly dividends from $0.29 to $0.30 per share in 2026-Q2 and maintained it in 2026-Q3. Capital allocation included issuance of $500M senior notes and redemption of $500M 2027 notes in 2026-Q1. Management is delivering on dividend growth and disciplined capital actions.
Delivery assessment Oct 29, 2026Increase free cash flow and maintain strong cash conversion | Free cash flow turned positive at $98 million in Q2. | Intact | Free cash flow conversion falls below 50% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow improved from a use of $79M in 2026-Q1 to positive $98M in 2026-Q2 and $133M in 2026-Q3. Management reaffirmed and then increased free cash flow conversion guidance from 60% to 70% for 2026. The trajectory shows significant progress in cash generation. Delivery assessment Oct 29, 2026 |
Maintain and grow operating margin | A primary condition in Moog Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=13.4% operating margin. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 12% next year | Operating margin: 15.79% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=13.4% operating margin. Target period ends 2026-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Jul 31, 202615.787093 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating margin improved from 11.4% in 2025-Q1 to 12.3% in 2026-Q1, 11.7% in 2025-Q2 to 13.1% in 2026-Q2, and 11.5% in 2025-Q3 to 15.8% in 2026-Q3. Management consistently emphasized profitable sales growth and operational performance, and the financials show delivering on margin expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 29, 2026 |
Sustain revenue growth across all segments | A primary condition in Moog Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=13% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below ~8% next year | Revenue growth: 14.95% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=13% YoY revenue growth. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 31, 202614.946215 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $907.9M in 2025-Q1 to $1.100B in 2026-Q1 (+21%), $934.0M in 2025-Q2 to $1.052B in 2026-Q2 (+13%), and $970.0M in 2025-Q3 to $1.117B in 2026-Q3 (+15%). Management consistently emphasized robust growth across all segments and the financials confirm delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 29, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.35 → $13.82 · observed estimates
$5.04B → $5.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.35 | $5,044,329,949 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $13.82 | $5,115,912,275 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.