Moog Inc. (MOG-A)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$371.68+0.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MOG-A
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 32.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MOG-A — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-31
Other Events On July 31, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share on the Company's issued and outstanding shares of Class A common stock and Class B common stock. The dividend will be paid on August 25, 2026 to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on August 14, 2026. A copy of the press release is included as Exhibit 99.2 of this report.
Why it matters: Growing dividends show Moog's promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividends increased to more than $0.30 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in quarterly dividend from the current $0.30 per share.
Why it matters: Better margins mean Moog is managing costs well. This helps Moog's long-term finances.
Supportive ifOperating margin exceeds 15.8% in Q4.
Worry ifOperating margin falls below 14.0% in Q4.
Why it matters: A growing backlog indicates strong future demand. If backlog growth slows, it could signal weakening market conditions.
Supportive ifBacklog growth reported above 30% year over year.
Worry ifBacklog growth reported below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Consistent dividend growth shows strong cash flow. It also shows management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at or above $0.30 in the next quarterly update.
Worry ifDividend per share drops below $0.30 in the next quarterly update.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to Moog's strategy. Slower growth may signal market challenges.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows strong demand and good operations. It shows Moog can take advantage of market chances.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue growth above 15% compared to Q4 2025.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth below 10% compared to Q4 2025.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow is crucial for funding growth and returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifFree cash flow stays above $90 million in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow drops below $50 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision may change interest rates and the economy. This can affect Moog.
Watch forThe FOMC raises interest rates. This shows a tighter monetary policy.
Also watch forFOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. It also shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income was higher than last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income was lower than last quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income means Moog is controlling costs well. This helps them make more money.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $137.94M in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $137.94M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A strong operating margin shows good cost control and profit. It shows Moog's operational skill.
Supportive ifThe adjusted operating margin was over 14% in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe adjusted operating margin is under 13% in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good financial health and ability to invest. It shows good cash management.
Supportive ifFree cash flow conversion at or above 70% in Q4 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow conversion below 60% in Q4 2026.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$126 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $326 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,882 loss on $10,000 · 18.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.