Moog Inc. (MOG-A)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$308.53-5.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MOG-A
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MOG-A — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-31
Other Events On July 31, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share on the Company's issued and outstanding shares of Class A common stock and Class B common stock. The dividend will be paid on August 25, 2026 to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on August 14, 2026. A copy of the press release is included as Exhibit 99.2 of this report.
Why it matters: A large backlog points to demand ahead, but it does not ensure timely sales. A drop would weaken the demand picture.
Watch forThe reported 12-month backlog stays at or above $3.3 billion.
Also watch forThe reported 12-month backlog falls below $3.0 billion.
Why it matters: Moog raised its sales goal after three quarters of growth across all four segments. A stronger finish would support the growth trend.
Supportive ifFY2026 net sales exceed $4.4 billion, the raised goal.
Worry ifFY2026 net sales fall below $4.4 billion, or Moog cuts its sales goal before year-end.
Why it matters: Moog named pump demand as a key driver of Industrial sales and margin. A slowdown could weaken that segment's recent gains.
Watch forIndustrial sales grow from a year ago. Moog reports strong, ongoing demand for data center cooling pumps.
Also watch forIndustrial sales fall year over year, or Moog reports weaker demand for data center cooling pumps.
Why it matters: Moog raised its cash conversion goal from 60% to 70%. Meeting the new goal would confirm that cash gains are keeping pace with earnings.
Supportive ifFY2026 free cash flow conversion is at least 70%.
Worry ifFY2026 free cash flow conversion is below 70%, or Moog cuts its goal.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$145 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $365 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,073 loss on $10,000 · 30.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Moog raised its margin goal, but tariff refunds helped lift recent results. Results without that boost will show how much the business improved.
Watch forFY2026 adjusted operating margin is at least 14.1%.
Also watch forFY2026 adjusted operating margin falls below 14.1%, or Moog lowers its margin goal.