Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Morningstar, Inc. (MORN)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$247.17+1.20%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.94 → 14.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MORN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.50 per share | A supporting condition in Morningstar, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.50 quarterly. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.50 quarterly | Dividend per share: $0.50 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.50 quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 20260.5 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial data and research growth business, with a multi-year view centered on profitable growth and scaling AI-enabled products. The thesis is intact, and recent momentum has improved, but management execution has been volatile and the valuation is expensive.
MORN trades at a 1.53 premium versus peers, and the valuation evidence points to an expensive stock. The expectations gap is high, while fragility is rated low because expensive valuation is not paired with weak fundamentals and turbulence; still, expectations appear vulnerable to weaker execution.
Near term, Q3 revenue rose 8.9% and operating income rose 31.0% year over year, supporting management’s stated focus on profitable growth. PitchBook Data Premium Connector use expanded, and Direct AI launched, though evidence across quarters is mixed; earnings-miss risk is rated low, but past deep misses and declining surprise trends warrant attention.
The multi-year thesis hinges on sustaining profitable growth and turning AI and data products into durable adoption. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength at sector peers could support sector momentum; rate cuts may weigh on financial stocks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MORN’s business setup has improved, but its expensive valuation makes consistent execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income growth and margin expansion | A primary condition in Morningstar, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $155.9 million next quarter. | Intact | Operating income falls below $155.9 million next quarter | Operating income: $167.4M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $155.9 million next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 2026167,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 7% per year | Morningstar grows revenue about 7% a year with profit rising. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below ~6.9% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Continue share repurchases reducing shares outstanding by ~4% annually | A supporting condition in Morningstar, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Shares outstanding reduced by ~4% over 12 months. | Intact | Shares outstanding reduction falls below ~4% over 12 months | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.46 → $14.96 · observed estimates
$2.78B → $2.83B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.46 | $2,776,127,100 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.46 | $2,776,127,100 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.45 | $2,776,123,570 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.45 | $2,776,123,570 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.46 | $2,776,127,100 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.46 | $2,776,127,100 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.45 | $2,776,123,570 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.94 | $2,800,562,840 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.94 | $2,800,562,840 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.94 | $2,800,702,130 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.80 | $2,789,450,620 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.94 | $2,800,835,467 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.00 | $2,807,768,348 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.00 | $2,807,768,348 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.00 | $2,807,768,348 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.00 | $2,807,768,348 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.00 | $2,807,768,348 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.00 | $2,807,768,348 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.00 | $2,807,768,348 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.00 | $2,807,645,048 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.58 | $2,822,357,031 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.58 | $2,822,357,031 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.58 | $2,822,357,031 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.58 | $2,822,357,031 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.58 | $2,822,357,031 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.96 | $2,830,066,542 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.