Morningstar, Inc. (MORN)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$209.40-2.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Morningstar grows revenue about 7% a year with profit rising. The company buys back shares and pays a steady 50 cent dividend. New AI and data products support future growth. Partnerships with big firms add strength.
Competition and AI stock warnings could hurt Morningstar's growth. Its data moat is shrinking. Profit gains may slow if product expansion stalls.
The price is about 9% below our fair value near $186. Analysts expect roughly 7% revenue growth. Our view aligns with these expectations but sees risk from competition and AI challenges.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.50 quarterly
Sustain and grow quarterly cash dividends to shareholders as part of capital return strategy.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is stable, supported by ongoing share buybacks and increasing operating income.
The market currently reflects a stretched valuation, indicating that expectations are high. There is a notable divergence in premium compared to peers, suggesting that investors anticipate continued strong performance.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued progress in profitability and dividend growth, as management remains on track with their priorities. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for guidance cuts, which could impact future performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPGI, CME, and ICE. Positive earnings and guidance from these companies could support Morningstar's momentum, while negative results could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company beat sales expectations, boosting profitability. Strong earnings indicate increased growth potential. The company is expanding its product offerings with AI integrations. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.46 in 2025-Q3 to $0.50 in 2026-Q2, with management announcing quarterly dividends consistently. The trajectory shows delivering on maintaining and modestly increasing dividends.
“Dividend per share was $0.50.”
“Dividend per share was $0.50.”
“Dividend per share was $0.46.”
“Dividend per share was $0.46.”
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $155.9 million next quarter
Sustain growth in operating income and margins through revenue growth, cost management, and strategic investments.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income grew from $125.1 million in 2025-Q2 to $160.6 million in 2026-Q2 (+28.4%), with adjusted operating margin rising from 23.7% to 26.5%. Management has consistently emphasized profitable growth, and the financial results show delivering progress on this priority.
“Operating income increased 28.4% to $160.6 million; adjusted operating margin was 26.5%.”
“Operating income increased 36.6% to $155.9 million; adjusted operating margin was 27.7%.”
“Operating income decreased 5.1% to $159.6 million; adjusted operating income increased 26.1%.”
“Operating income increased 8.6% to $526.6 million for full year 2025; adjusted operating income increased 18.0%.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below ~6.9% next year
Breaks if: Shares outstanding reduction falls below ~4% over 12 months
Overall, the outlook for Morningstar over the next 1 to 3 years depends on sector performance and management execution. Not investment advice.