Morningstar, Inc. (MORN)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$244.25+3.19%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MORN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 98.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 91.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MORN — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-18
Other Events. On September 18, 2026, Morningstar, Inc. issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly cash dividend of 50 cents per share payable October 30, 2026 to shareholders of record as of October 2, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Q3 free cash flow fell 2.9% to $155.4 million as working capital moved against the company. A rebound would show cash generation has steadied.
Watch forQuarterly free cash flow exceeds $155.4 million and grows year over year.
Also watch forQuarterly free cash flow stays below $155.4 million and declines year over year again.
Why it matters: Credit was a leading source of growth, with revenue up 18.3% in Q3. The company tied this growth to strong ratings issuance.
Worry ifMorningstar Credit revenue growth falls below 10% year over year in a coming quarter.
Less concerning ifMorningstar Credit revenue growth stays at or above 15% year over year, with gains across asset classes.
Why it matters: Tool calls rose from 1 million in July to over 13 million in October. Continued use would show demand for its data in AI tools.
Supportive ifMorningstar reports more than 13 million cumulative tool calls in a later update, with the count still rising.
Worry ifA later update shows tool calls flat or below 13 million, or reports weak client use of the connector.
Why it matters: PitchBook growth slowed to 3.9% in Q3. More churn in corporate and venture capital clients could add pressure.
Worry ifPitchBook revenue grows less than 3% year over year in a coming quarter, or licensed users decline year over year.
Less concerning ifPitchBook revenue growth returns to at least 5% and licensed users grow year over year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $427 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,534 loss on $10,000 · 35.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Wealth revenue fell 6.0% organically in Q3, but rose 2.1% after removing Morningstar Office. That split tests the effect of the product exit.
Supportive ifMorningstar Wealth reports organic revenue growth in a coming quarter. Growth stays positive without Morningstar Office.
Worry ifMorningstar Wealth organic revenue falls at least 5% again. This is still true after removing Morningstar Office.