Morningstar, Inc. (MORN)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$209.40-2.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MORN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 29.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MORN — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-18
Other Events. On June 18, 2026, Morningstar, Inc. issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly cash dividend of 50 cents per share payable July 31, 2026 to shareholders of record as of July 10, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Why it matters: This growth rate reflects the strength of Morningstar's credit ratings business. A decline may indicate market weakness.
Worry ifMorningstar Credit's revenue grew less than 23.4% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifMorningstar Credit's revenue grew more than 23.4% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Successful AI product launches could raise revenue. They show Morningstar can adapt.
Supportive ifRevenue growth attributed to new AI products launched in Q3.
Worry ifNo significant revenue growth linked to AI products in Q3.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends shows confidence in future earnings and cash flow. It can attract more investors.
Supportive ifDividend per share announced above $0.50.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at $0.50 or decreases.
Why it matters: If PitchBook revenue growth slows, it may indicate challenges in the market or competition. This could impact overall revenue growth.
Worry ifPitchBook revenue growth reported below 5% for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifPitchBook revenue growth reported at or above 5% for Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $429 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,456 loss on $10,000 · 44.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If they integrate well, it could make products better. This may lead to more money.
Supportive ifThe management says they have made big progress. They also have new partnerships for AI.
Worry ifThey did not report any updates on AI or data integration.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows that management is doing a good job.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 exceeds $155.9M.
Worry ifOperating income for Q2 falls below $155.9M.
Why it matters: Updates on AI integrations can show future growth and new ideas.
Supportive ifManagement announces a successful launch of a new AI product.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in AI product launches beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Slower growth in operating income may mean trouble keeping profits.
Worry ifOperating income growth reported below 22.7% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth reported above 22.7% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: An increase would reflect strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase from $0.50 per share in Q2.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced in Q3.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends shows strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifMorningstar will raise its dividend to more than $0.50 in the next quarter.
Worry ifMorningstar maintains the dividend at $0.50 or lowers it.
Why it matters: The buyback program is important for giving value back to shareholders. It shows a focus on how to use money.
Supportive ifMorningstar will finish at least 50% of the planned buyback in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo major buyback activity is expected in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program may show management's trust in the stock and finances. This can change how investors feel.
Supportive ifManagement says they finished a big part of the share buyback program.
Worry ifManagement reports delays or cuts to the planned buyback program.
Why it matters: More buybacks show that the company is confident in its finances. This is good for shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases exceed $300 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases fall below $200 million by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: This metric tests whether Morningstar can maintain its growth momentum. A drop could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth was below 6.8%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic revenue growth was above 6.8%.
Why it matters: More buybacks would show strong confidence in the company's finances and future.
Supportive ifShare buybacks announced in Q3 exceed $100 million.
Worry ifShare buybacks in Q3 fall below $100 million.