Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MP Materials (MP)
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.91-5.08%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.78 → 0.61 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA improvement | Profit improved with adjusted EBITDA up $39 million. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA falls below -$2.7 million in any future quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth and build-out story, not a proven earnings compounder: MP is currently loss-making, with elevated risk and weak recent financial performance. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, though the signal has shifted from cautious to mixed.
MP is valued at a premium to peers, with optionality, or potential from future growth initiatives, identified as the main valuation driver. The expectations gap is sizable, but model confidence is low; the evidence does not show that the expensive valuation is supported by current earnings.
Over the multi-year view, NdPr production and sales have risen, and management has moved the 10X magnetics facility from groundbreaking into faster construction. Still, the latest reported earnings event was a miss, recent performance is well below the industry cohort, and the business remains loss-making. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but the evidence notes a history of a deep miss and recent peer misses.
The thesis depends on continued delivery of the NdPr ramp and the 10X facility build, which management says could generate at least $140 million in annual EBITDA at full capacity. It also depends on whether the new heavy rare earth initiatives gain commercial traction, and whether materials-sector bellwethers keep guiding higher or instead weaken. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative.
For the next 1 to 3 years, MP combines visible project progress and a supportive sector backdrop with weak financial results, elevated risk, and a valuation premium. The thesis hinges on execution and improving fundamentals, not on current earnings strength. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in MP Materials's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.03 in FY 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS guidance falls below $0.03 for FY 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.03 in FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 6, 2026-0.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Break ground on 10X magnetics facility | A supporting condition in MP Materials's published investment case. The stated target is Construction initiated on 10X magnetics facility by end 2026. | Improving | No construction start announced by end 2026 | Construction status: advancing (qualitative) News from June 2026 indicates the magnet expansion is advancing, supporting the construction target. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Given market prices for NdPr products in the fourth quarter, we recognized price protection agreement income (“PPA Income”) based on the right to receive cash from the DoW for the difference between $110 per kilogram and the Benchmark Quarterly Average Volume Weighted Price for the NdPr products produced at Mountain Pass that were sold or produced and stockpiled during the fourth quarter of 2025.” “Also contributing to the improvement was an $11.4 million increase in the Magnetics Segment Adjusted EBITDA, due to the recognition of magnetic precursor product sales, with no comparable revenue in the prior year period.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
NdPr production and sales volumes growth | NdPr sales rose 117% year over year. | Intact | NdPr production or sales volumes fall below 563 and 464 tons respectively in any future quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The decline in revenue was partially offset by $19.9 million of magnetic precursor products sales with no comparable revenue in the prior year period, coupled with an $8.3 million increase in NdPr oxide and metal sales driven by higher NdPr Production Volume as a result of ramping production of separated products over the last twelve months.” “Adjusted EBITDA increased by $49.9 million year-over-year to $39.2 million, primarily due to the NdPr price floor protection agreement with the DoW (the “Price Protection Agreement” or “PPA”) for our NdPr products, which commenced on October 1, 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.98 → $0.61 · observed estimates
$0.79B → $0.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.98 | $794,806,440 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.96 | $785,070,270 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.96 | $785,070,270 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.94 | $788,471,879 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.96 | $785,070,270 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.96 | $785,070,270 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.96 | $785,070,270 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.95 | $782,193,190 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.93 | $785,738,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.93 | $785,738,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.93 | $785,738,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.95 | $782,193,190 | 15 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.93 | $785,738,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.93 | $785,738,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.93 | $785,738,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.95 | $785,011,050 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.93 | $785,738,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.93 | $785,738,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.88 | $806,406,820 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.88 | $806,406,820 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.93 | $785,738,546 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.93 | $785,738,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.93 | $785,738,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.93 | $785,738,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.93 | $785,738,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.93 | $785,738,546 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.83 | $791,707,523 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.83 | $791,707,523 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.83 | $791,707,523 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.82 | $791,138,292 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.82 | $791,138,292 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.82 | $791,138,292 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.82 | $791,138,292 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.82 | $791,138,292 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.82 | $791,138,292 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.82 | $791,138,292 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.82 | $791,138,292 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.82 | $791,138,292 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.82 | $791,138,292 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.82 | $791,138,292 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.82 | $791,138,292 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.82 | $791,138,292 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.82 | $779,550,566 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.82 | $779,550,566 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.82 | $779,550,566 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.82 | $791,138,292 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.83 | $790,676,753 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.83 | $790,676,753 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.83 | $790,676,753 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.83 | $790,676,753 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.83 | $790,676,753 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.83 | $790,676,753 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.83 | $790,676,753 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.83 | $790,676,753 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.83 | $790,676,753 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.83 | $790,676,753 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.83 | $790,676,753 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.81 | $779,746,676 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.81 | $779,746,676 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.81 | $779,746,676 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.81 | $779,746,676 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.81 | $779,746,676 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.81 | $779,746,676 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.81 | $779,746,676 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.81 | $779,746,676 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.81 | $779,746,676 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.81 | $779,746,676 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.81 | $779,746,676 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.81 | $779,746,676 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.78 | $778,592,830 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.78 | $778,592,830 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.78 | $778,592,830 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.78 | $778,592,830 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.77 | $770,836,199 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.77 | $770,836,199 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.75 | $769,109,082 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.74 | $769,125,332 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.74 | $769,125,332 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.74 | $769,125,332 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.74 | $769,125,332 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.74 | $769,125,332 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.74 | $769,125,332 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.69 | $772,196,761 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.69 | $772,196,761 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.69 | $772,196,761 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.69 | $772,196,761 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.69 | $772,196,761 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.69 | $772,196,761 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.69 | $775,091,182 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.69 | $775,091,182 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.69 | $775,091,182 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.64 | $772,237,325 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.64 | $772,237,325 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.64 | $772,237,325 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.64 | $772,237,325 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.64 | $772,237,325 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.64 | $772,083,939 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.64 | $772,083,939 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.61 | $775,436,550 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.61 | $775,436,550 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.61 | $775,436,550 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.61 | $775,436,550 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.61 | $775,436,550 | 10 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.