MP Materials (MP)
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.91-5.08%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 377.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 391.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers
MP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, MP Materials Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is hereby incorporated by reference in this
Why it matters: The long-term deal adds a new heavy rare earth product and a U.S. aerospace and defense customer. Delivery would show the deal moving into sales.
Supportive ifMP reports its first gadolinium deliveries under the long-term customer deal. It names the sales volume.
Worry ifMP reports that the deal is delayed, changed, or ended. Or, it reports no deliveries in the next quarterly update.
Why it matters: Q2 production rose 41% year over year, but fell from Q1's 917 metric tons. Q3 output tests the ramp.
Watch forQ3 NdPr production is at least 840 metric tons, with sales near or above 1,006 metric tons.
Also watch forQ3 NdPr production falls below 840 metric tons, or sales fall below 1,006 metric tons.
Why it matters: Project Swarm aims to group drone demand and set shared product specs. Orders would show that the effort has moved beyond customer sign-ups.
Supportive ifMP reports a named drone customer order or a signed supply deal tied to Project Swarm.
Worry ifMP reports no orders or supply deals tied to Project Swarm in its next two quarterly updates.
Why it matters: Q2 Adjusted EBITDA was $28.5 million and included $17.6 million of PPA income. The next report can show how much came from sales.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is below $10 million, or turns negative, as PPA income falls.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is at least $28.5 million while PPA income is below $17.6 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$246 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $645 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,057 loss on $10,000 · 50.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: MP says 10X construction accelerated in Q2. Reaching full capacity is tied to at least $140 million in annual EBITDA.
Supportive ifMP reports a clear construction milestone at 10X. It keeps its full-capacity EBITDA goal at or above $140 million yearly.
Worry ifMP reports a delay, a pause in construction, or a cut to the $140 million yearly EBITDA goal.