MP Materials (MP)
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$54.53+1.39%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 99.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 100.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MP — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, MP Materials Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is hereby incorporated by reference in this
Why it matters: New agreements can expand MP Materials' market and revenue base.
Supportive ifThere are new long-term agreements for HREE products.
Worry ifNo new agreements were announced. This shows slow growth in the HREE area.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for the company's financial health and market position.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue is over $90.6 million, showing ongoing growth.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue falls below $90.6 million, suggesting a decline.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is important. It helps keep operations running and supports expansion.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: New agreements can expand the customer base and revenue streams. This supports the growth strategy in heavy rare earth elements.
Supportive ifOne or more new long-term offtake agreements for HREE products are signed by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new offtake agreements are announced by the end of Q3 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$277 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $780 loss on $10,000 · 7.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,138 loss on $10,000 · 61.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing financially.
Watch forQ3 earnings show revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA is positive.
Also watch forQ3 earnings reveal revenue decline or worsening losses.
Why it matters: Higher revenue in this area shows successful product launch and market acceptance.
Supportive ifMagnetics Segment revenue exceeds $25 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifMagnetics Segment revenue falls below $20 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows improved cost management. This may mean higher profits soon.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to at least -$10M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income worsens or stays below -$24M in Q2.
Why it matters: This agreement could expand MP Materials' customer base and revenue streams.
Supportive ifRevenue from the new offtake agreement exceeds $10 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue from the new offtake agreement is below $10 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better Adjusted EBITDA means more profit and efficiency. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA is more than $36 million.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $36 million.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating earnings expectations can make investors feel better. This is important after the recent earnings miss.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings meet or beat what analysts expected.
Worry ifQ2 earnings miss expectations again.
Why it matters: Growth in the materials sector may show recovery and help MP Materials.
Watch forMaterials sector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for three years.
Also watch forMaterials sector revenue growth is still negative.
Why it matters: Progress on the facility is important for future income and market share.
Supportive ifManagement says they completed key steps to build the 10X facility.
Worry ifThere are reports of delays or problems in building the 10X facility.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow means better control of working capital. This can help financial stability.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q2.
Why it matters: More NdPr production helps MP Materials make money. A strong rise shows good management.
Supportive ifQ3 NdPr production growth exceeds 41% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 NdPr production growth is less than or equal to 41%.