Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.15-4.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.72 → 1.44 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MPAA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income improves above $21M | Operating income improved from -$6.5M to $21.1M in one year. | Broken | Operating income falls below $15M in next four quarters | Operating income: $3.532M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Operating income > $21M. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 20263,532,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk profitability and growth improvement story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management priorities are on track, while recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
MPAA is described as cheap versus peers, and the pricing signal is tagged as justified, with low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, but confidence in that valuation model is low, so the evidence does not establish how much improvement the market assumes.
Over the multi-year view, management is making progress on revenue, operating income, and cash from operations, and has reaffirmed fiscal 2027 guidance. Near term, erratic earnings and the most recent miss leave an elevated risk of another miss, despite guidance being reaffirmed as of August 10.
The thesis depends on delivering the reaffirmed guidance and turning new business commitments into sales, while sustaining operating efficiencies and stronger cash generation. Near-term signals also include whether guidance is cut and whether sector bellwethers keep beating and guiding higher, or instead weaken.
MPAA has signs of improving execution, but the multi-year view remains uncertain because earnings are inconsistent and the latest performance trails its industry cohort. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Excluding these non-cash expenses and certain one-time cash items, gross margin was 20.2 percent.” “Excluding these non-cash and certain one-time cash items, gross margin increased to 25.8 percent.” Operating income was $21.061 million in 2026-Q4.
Operating margin near 15.5% in fiscal 2027 | Profit margin is expected near 15.5% next fiscal year. | Broken | Operating margin falls below 12.3% in fiscal 2027 | Operating margin: 2.1% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: 15.5% operating margin. Target period ends 2027-03-31; this observation covers 2027-Q1. Aug 10, 20262.102118 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Excluding these non-cash expenses and certain one-time cash items, gross margin was 20.2 percent.” “Excluding these non-cash and certain one-time cash items, gross margin increased to 25.8 percent.” Operating income was $21.061 million in 2026-Q4. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows to about $790M in fiscal 2027 | Motorcar Parts of America grows revenue about 5% yearly, hitting $790M next year. | Intact | Revenue falls below $750M in fiscal 2027 | Revenue: $168.021M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$790M. Target period ends 2027-03-31; this observation covers 2027-Q1. Aug 10, 2026168,021,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.89 → $1.44 · observed estimates
$0.86B → $0.84B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.89 | $862,332,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.89 | $862,332,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.89 | $862,332,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.89 | $862,332,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.89 | $862,332,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.89 | $862,332,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.89 | $862,332,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.89 | $862,332,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.89 | $862,332,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.89 | $861,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.72 | $833,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.44 | $842,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.