Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.58+1.83%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPAA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers
MPAA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 10, 2026 , Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the fiscal quarter ended June 30 , 2026 which is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, un…
Why it matters: MPAA names cash flow and working capital as priorities. Net bank debt rose to $99.7 million at June 30, from $80 million at March 31.
Watch forCash from operations tops $21.9 million for the quarter. Net bank debt drops below $99.7 million.
Also watch forCash from operations falls below $21.9 million while net bank debt stays at or above $99.7 million.
Why it matters: Management says new business could lift annual sales above $900 million by fiscal year-end. Orders were delayed as customers used stock from a rival that had gone out of business.
Supportive ifMPAA reports new orders ramping up and annual sales above $900 million by March 31, 2027.
Worry ifThe new orders stay delayed, or MPAA no longer sees a path to more than $100 million in added annual sales.
Why it matters: Management kept its full-year goal after Q1 operating income fell to $3.5 million. Reaching the goal would show the planned recovery is gaining ground.
Supportive ifMPAA keeps its $86 million to $91 million operating income goal and reports progress toward that range.
Worry ifMPAA cuts the $86 million to $91 million goal, or later results leave full-year income below its pace.
Why it matters: MPAA links better margins to more brake sales and higher use of brake capacity. Q1 adjusted gross margin was 20.2%, while reported margin was 16.2%.
Supportive ifReported gross margin rises above 16.2% as brake sales grow and brake plant use increases.
Worry ifGross margin stays at or below 16.2%, or MPAA reports no increase in brake sales or plant use.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$145 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $407 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,631 loss on $10,000 · 46.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: MPAA reported Q1 sales of $168 million, down from $188.4 million. Management kept its full-year sales goal at $780 million to $800 million.
Watch forQ2 results keep fiscal 2027 sales guidance at $780 million to $800 million, with sales above $168 million.
Also watch forMPAA cuts its $780 million to $800 million sales goal or reports Q2 sales below $168 million.