Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.08+2.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPAA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MPAA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 10, 2026 , Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the fiscal quarter ended June 30 , 2026 which is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, un…
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps financial health and growth plans. This is key for the company.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $21.9 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is below $21.9 million. This shows possible cash problems.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows how well the company manages costs. This is key for making money in the long run.
Supportive ifOperating income increases year over year by more than 12.3%.
Worry ifOperating income does not grow or declines year over year.
Why it matters: New business deals are important for reaching an extra $100 million in annual sales.
Supportive ifNew contracts or partnerships could help increase revenue.
Worry ifNo new business deals announced. This may lead to slow revenue growth.
Why it matters: If they meet or beat guidance, it shows they manage costs well.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q3 is between $86 million and $91 million.
Worry ifOperating income for Q3 falls below $86 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$168 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $417 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,631 loss on $10,000 · 46.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New business commitments are expected to boost sales. This will help assess the company's growth trajectory.
Supportive ifNew contracts or partnerships could add over $100 million in annual sales.
Worry ifNo new business deals announced. Existing deals do not grow as expected.
Why it matters: If sales stabilize or grow, it shows management believes in future growth.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales show year-over-year growth of at least 5%.
Worry ifQ3 net sales decline year-over-year by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Management wants to improve cash flow from operations. Better cash flow shows good financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is positive for the next quarter. This shows better cash generation.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative or goes down. This shows ongoing cash flow problems.
Why it matters: New business commitments can help revenue grow. Announcements show how well the company adapts to changes.
Supportive ifNew business commitments worth over $10 million were announced. This shows growth potential.
Worry ifNo new business commitments were announced. This suggests problems in getting new contracts.
Why it matters: The company expects net sales to grow by 7.5% to 10.2% each year. Meeting this goal will show strong demand and good business plans.
Supportive ifFor fiscal 2027, net sales are between $780 million and $800 million. This confirms growth expectations.
Worry ifFor fiscal 2027, net sales are below $780 million. This shows weaker demand than expected.
Why it matters: Success in the relaunch could drive significant new sales and improve margins.
Supportive ifManagement says customer interest and sales are up for the Centric Parts brand.
Worry ifThere are no sales or customer interest from the Centric Parts brand relaunch.
Why it matters: Stable operating income shows effective cost management. It is key for long-term success.
Watch forOperating income increases to over $25M in the next quarter.
Also watch forOperating income drops below $15M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show management believes in the company's value and health.
Supportive ifThe company announces more share buybacks of at least $2 million.
Worry ifNo further share repurchases are announced in the next quarter.