Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. (MPB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.30-2.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.83 → 3.71 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MPB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.22 per share | It pays a steady dividend of $0.22 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.22 per quarter | Dividend per share: $0.22 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.22 USD per share per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.22 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional financial company with a measured, execution-dependent long-term thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or high-growth story. The thesis is intact, though recent momentum weakened and management execution has been volatile.
The evidence describes MPB as cheap versus peers, with valuation expectations broadly justified and low fragility. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the available evidence does not suggest that investors are assuming a large amount of upside.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong relative to the industry, but the latest quarter showed net interest margin and the core efficiency ratio worsening, alongside limited progress on cost savings and loan growth. Over the multi-year view, acquisition integration, expense control, loan growth, and margin improvement remain central; a COO transition adds uncertainty, while the dividend continued and no shares were repurchased in the latest quarter.
The thesis depends on management turning acquisition integration into better expense efficiency while growing loans and stabilizing net interest margin. Near term, a guidance cut or falling interest rates would be unfavorable in the evidence snapshot, while continued strength from financial-sector peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MPB’s business case remains intact, but recent momentum and mixed execution make progress on costs, lending, and margins important to watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share are expected near $2.59 in 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $2.55 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.85 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.55 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.85 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Extend and expand share repurchase program | Mid Penn Bancorp keeps buying back shares, extending its repurchase program. | Intact | Repurchase program is not extended or is reduced materially | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete strategic acquisitions to enhance growth | A supporting condition in Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Complete acquisitions that add material assets or capabilities. | Intact | No meaningful acquisitions completed or announced within 12 months | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.63 → $3.71 · observed estimates
$0.31B → $0.32B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.63 | $310,050,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.65 | $314,802,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.65 | $314,802,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.76 | $319,569,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.76 | $319,569,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.86 | $324,302,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.86 | $324,302,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.86 | $324,302,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.86 | $324,302,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.86 | $324,302,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.86 | $324,302,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.86 | $324,302,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.86 | $324,302,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.86 | $324,302,233 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.83 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.88 | $324,035,567 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.86 | $324,435,175 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.80 | $321,708,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.80 | $321,708,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.71 | $320,483,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.71 | $320,483,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.71 | $320,483,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.71 | $320,483,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.71 | $320,483,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.71 | $320,483,500 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.