Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. (MPB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.40+0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
MPB — officer change
Dated 2026-08-06
Mr. Stewart: A change in control agreement was entered into, providing severance benefits for Mr. Stewart.
Why it matters: Net interest margin affects how much money a company makes. An increase shows good management of income and costs.
Supportive ifNet interest margin goes above 4.06%. This shows the company is in strong financial shape.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.80%. This suggests there may be problems managing interest income.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if growth keeps going after recent purchases. Investors will check if performance meets expectations.
Watch forEarnings per share is over $0.86. This shows strong performance is still happening.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $0.36, suggesting a decline in growth momentum.
Why it matters: A drop below 4.00% would indicate potential issues in loan yields or funding costs. This could signal a weakening in profitability.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin was below 4.00%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains at or above 4.00%.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks can show that management believes in the company's value. This can help support share price.
Supportive ifRepurchase of more than 76,000 shares in Q3.
Worry ifNo share buybacks or less buyback activity.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $278 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,549 loss on $10,000 · 15.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This may affect investor confidence in Mid Penn Bancorp.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below the average of about 15%.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is at or above the average of about 15%.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can drive growth and market share. Successful deals could enhance long-term value.
Supportive ifThey announced a strategic acquisition that adds value or market share.
Worry ifNo acquisitions are announced in the next six months. This shows no growth.
Why it matters: An increase means strong earnings and a focus on giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifA quarterly dividend increase was announced. It is above $0.23.
Worry ifNo increase in the quarterly dividend from $0.23.
Why it matters: Maintaining or increasing the dividend is crucial for investor trust. Changes could signal financial health.
Watch forDividend payout remains at $0.22 or increases in the next quarter.
Also watch forThe dividend payout drops below $0.22. This shows financial problems.
Why it matters: The share buyback program can help the stock price. It shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifThey announced buybacks of at least $10 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifThere are no buyback announcements or a cut in the buyback program.
Why it matters: A big drop could mean problems with keeping customers or facing competition.
Worry ifTotal deposits decline more than 2% in Q3.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits remain stable or grow in Q3.
Why it matters: Continued loan growth is key for revenue and net interest margin. It reflects the success of recent acquisitions.
Supportive ifOrganic loan growth exceeds $186.8 million, showing strong demand.
Worry ifOrganic loan growth is under $50 million. This may mean there are problems with loan demand.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs may mean higher credit risk and asset quality problems.
Worry ifNet charge-offs reported above $1 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs reported at or below $1 million for Q3.