Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. (MPB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$34.30-2.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MPB — COO transition
Dated 2026-10-27
COO — Dana R. Stewart: The resignation of the First Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer represents the loss of a senior executive without a named successor in the filing.
Why it matters: Mid Penn closed some branches and said savings would take less than one year to earn back. A lower ratio would show costs are easing.
Supportive ifThe next reported core efficiency ratio is below Q3's 60.57%.
Worry ifThe next reported core efficiency ratio is 60.57% or higher. No cost savings from branch closures are reported.
Why it matters: The margin fell from 4.06% to 3.92% in Q3. Another drop would add pressure to bank income.
Worry ifThe next reported net interest margin is below 3.92%.
Less concerning ifThe next reported net interest margin is 3.92% or higher.
Why it matters: Nonperforming assets rose to $47.0 million in Q3, led by commercial real estate loans. A further rise would signal more credit strain.
Worry ifThe next report shows nonperforming assets above $47.0 million, or a higher past-due loan rate than 0.73%.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets fall to $47.0 million or less and past-due loans stay at or below 0.73%.
Why it matters: The filing says the COO left without a named successor. A prompt appointment would reduce uncertainty around the leadership handoff.
Watch forA company filing or release names a new COO within the next three months.
Also watch forNo successor is named by January 27, 2027. Or a filing reports another senior leader leaving.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$75 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $214 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,228 loss on $10,000 · 12.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management called loan growth softer than expected. More growth would support its plan to grow loans.
Supportive ifIn the next report, organic loans rise by more than $176.2 million from December 31, 2025, on a comparable basis.
Worry ifOrganic loans stay at or below $176.2 million from December 31, 2025. Or management again says growth is softer than expected.
Why it matters: Organic deposits rose $133.3 million from year-end through Q3. Continued growth would support the bank's funding base.
Supportive ifThe next report shows organic deposits above $133.3 million of growth from December 31, 2025.
Worry ifOrganic deposits are $133.3 million or less above December 31, 2025, or decline from Q3.