Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. (MPLT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.22-7.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MPLT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash position near $450 million to fund operations through 2027 | It has about $450 million cash to last through 2027. | Improving | Cash falls significantly below $450 million before end of 2027 | Cash and cash equivalents: $71.633M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain ~$450 million cash through 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Date unavailable71,633,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a clinical-development story, with several programs advancing through trials rather than evidence of a proven, durable growth business. The long-term thesis is on watch: management has moved key programs forward, but recent financial performance is weak and overall evidence confidence is low.
The evidence does not provide a valuation comparison or specific market expectations, so it is not possible to say whether MPLT looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers. It reports no pricing-fragility signals, but that does not resolve the gap between expectations and the company’s weak recent performance.
Near term, results remain at risk: the company has missed in recent quarters, and the evidence flags a 52% miss probability into the next report. Management is advancing ML-007C-MA trials and has early Phase 2 evidence for ML-004, while the August earnings beat is a positive counterpoint. Risk has risen, and the evidence does not establish a clear financial recovery path.
The multi-year view depends on trial progress, including the planned Phase 3 ZEPHYR-2 study and VISTA results expected in the second half of 2027. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could add pressure, while continued strength from healthcare sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MPLT remains a high-risk clinical-development story with meaningful program progress but weak recent performance and limited valuation evidence. The thesis depends on trial execution and whether near-term business and sector risks ease. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Based on its current operational plans and assumptions, MapLight expects that its existing cash, cash equivalents and investments, together with the net proceeds from the PIPE, will be sufficient to fund the continued advancement of ML-007C-MA through 2028.” “Proceeds from the financing are expected to primarily support the continued advancement of ML-007C-MA, including funding the planned Phase 3 ZEPHYR-2 trial and ongoing Phase 2 VISTA trial, and for working capital and other general corporate purposes.”
Engage FDA in End-of-Phase 2 meeting to define clinical path | The company plans to meet the FDA to guide clinical steps. | Intact | No FDA meeting engagement by end of 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Control operating losses and cash burn to sustain development | A primary condition in MapLight Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating losses not worsen beyond -$64.5M quarterly. | Intact | Operating losses worsen beyond -$64.5M in any quarter | Operating income: $-63.548M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating losses not worsen beyond -$64.5M quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 2026-63,548,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “R&D expenses increased primarily due to increases in clinical trial expenses and employee-related expenses, including an increase in stock-based compensation expense of $5.6 million.” “G&A expenses increased primarily due to increases in employee-related expenses, including an increase in stock-based compensation expense of $2.9 million, and increases in professional fees and other expenses.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Deliver topline results from Phase 2 ZEPHYR and ML-004 IRIS trials | MapLight aims to report Phase 2 trial results in Q3 2026. | Intact | Topline results not reported by end of Q3 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-4.14 → $-4.20 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-4.15 | $16,666,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-4.15 | $16,666,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-4.15 | $16,666,667 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-3.67 | $18,181,820 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-3.64 | $20,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-3.64 | $20,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-3.64 | $20,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.67 | $18,181,820 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-3.59 | $18,181,820 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.59 | $18,181,820 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-4.14 | $16,666,667 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-3.85 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-3.85 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-3.85 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-3.85 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-3.85 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-3.85 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-3.85 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-3.85 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-3.85 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-3.85 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-3.85 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-3.85 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-3.85 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-3.82 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.82 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.82 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.82 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.82 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.82 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.82 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.82 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.86 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-3.91 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-4.20 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-4.20 | $16,666,667 | 9 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.