MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. (MPLT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.77+4.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPLT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -63.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MPLT — private placement
Dated 2026-08-13
Entry Into A Material Definitive Agreement. On August 13, 2026, MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “ Purchase Agreement ”) with certain institutional investors (the “ Purchasers ”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to sell and issue to the Purchasers in a private placement transaction (the “ Private Placement ”) (i) 9,197,887 shares (the “ Shares ”) of the Company’s voting common stock, par value $0.0001 (“ Common Stock ”) per s…
Why it matters: Higher cash burn could hurt the company's finances. It may affect funding through 2027.
Worry ifCash burn is within the planned range and matches current operational plans.
Less concerning ifCash burn is more than expected. This shows possible financial trouble.
Why it matters: Topline results will show if the trials are successful. This is key for future funding and growth.
Supportive ifTopline results from the Phase 2 trials are reported as positive.
Worry ifTopline results from the Phase 2 trials are reported as negative.
Why it matters: Topline results will show if the trials are successful. This is key for future funding and partnerships.
Supportive ifTopline results from the Phase 2 ZEPHYR and ML-004 IRIS trials are positive.
Worry ifTopline results from the trials are negative or inconclusive.
Why it matters: A confirmed cash runway shows financial stability. This is crucial for ongoing operations and trials.
Supportive ifManagement says cash is stable at about $450 million.
Worry ifManagement says cash reserves are now under $400 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$359 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $794 loss on $10,000 · 7.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,513 loss on $10,000 · 75.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Frequent changes in leaders can change the company’s path. This can hurt trust from investors.
Worry ifManagement announces a new CFO or a stable leadership team.
Less concerning ifMore changes in leaders or issues with keeping leaders stable.
Why it matters: Larger losses may show problems with cost management. This affects investor trust and future funding.
Worry ifOperating losses reported worse than -$64.5 million in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating losses were better than -$50 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Losing more money can show bigger financial problems. Stabilization may mean better cost control.
Watch forOperating losses stay the same or go down compared to past quarters.
Also watch forOperating losses increase beyond $64.5 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A big change in cash could affect operations and investor confidence. Keeping cash is key for trials.
Worry ifCash position remains stable or increases ahead of Q2 earnings.
Less concerning ifCash drops a lot before Q2 earnings, which may mean funding problems.
Why it matters: A CFO change can affect financial strategy and investor confidence. Clarity on this can influence stock performance.
Worry ifManagement has a clear plan for finances after the CFO change.
Less concerning ifThey did not share a clear plan. This causes uncertainty in financial management.
Why it matters: Positive results would support the advancement of ML-007C-MA into Phase 3 trials. This could boost investor confidence in the drug's potential.
Supportive ifTopline results show a clear drop in PANSS total score compared to placebo.
Worry ifResults do not meet the main goal or show no clear improvement over placebo.
Why it matters: Working with the FDA could clarify how to bring ML-007C-MA to market. Positive feedback could speed up development.
Supportive ifManagement reports a successful meeting with the FDA about ML-007C-MA.
Worry ifFDA feedback shows serious concerns about the drug's development path.
Why it matters: Results will show if ML-004 works for autism spectrum disorder. This could affect regulations.
Supportive ifTopline results show a big rise in ABI-SC scores compared to placebo.
Worry ifTopline results do not show a big rise in ABI-SC scores compared to placebo.
Why it matters: Results will show how ML-004 may help with irritability in autism spectrum disorder. Good data could lead to more development.
Supportive ifThe results show less irritability in teens with ASD.
Worry ifResults do not show clear improvement in irritability or do not meet main goals.
Why it matters: Updates on enrollment will show how ML-007C-MA for Alzheimer’s Disease Psychosis is progressing. This may change future funding and timelines.
Supportive ifManagement confirms that enrollment is on track and progressing well.
Worry ifEnrollment stops or is delayed, showing possible problems with the trial.
Why it matters: Topline results will show how well ML-007C-MA works for Alzheimer's Disease Psychosis. This is key for future development.
Supportive ifThe Phase 2 VISTA trial shows a clear improvement in symptoms.
Worry ifThe VISTA trial shows no clear improvement compared to placebo.
Why it matters: Engagement with the FDA will clarify the path for ML-007C-MA in schizophrenia. This is crucial for regulatory approval.
Supportive ifConfirmation of an End-of-Phase 2 meeting with the FDA regarding the ZEPHYR-2 trial.
Worry ifNo engagement with the FDA or delays in the planned Phase 3 ZEPHYR-2 trial.
Why it matters: Updates will show progress in developing ML-004. This drug may help treat irritability in teens.
Supportive ifManagement shares a clear plan for ML-004 after meeting with the FDA.
Worry ifNo clear path forward for ML-004 following the FDA meeting.
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway will show if MapLight can fund its clinical trials through 2028. This affects operational stability.
Watch forManagement says they have enough cash until 2028. This is after a recent private placement.
Also watch forManagement says cash runway is shorter than expected. This raises concerns about funding.