Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Medical Properties Trust (MPT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.88-8.29%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MPT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $1 billion annualized cash rent by end of 2026 | Medical Properties Trust aims to reach $1 billion in annualized cash rent by end of 2026. | Improving | annualized cash rent falls below $900 million by end of 2026 | Revenue: $259.283M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1 billion annualized cash rent. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026259,283,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a challenged, asset-backed real estate business with a balance-sheet repair story, rather than a proven growth compounder. Its long-term thesis remains in watch mode: management has made progress on debt actions, but operating results and rent collection are still weak or mixed.
MPT screens as cheap versus peers, while the valuation evidence also points to a sizable expectations gap and medium model confidence. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not show that the valuation depends on unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, recent performance remains weak: third-quarter NFFO per share was lower year over year, and HSA’s missed September rent reduced it further, although revenue increased. Management has reduced net debt through asset sales and refinancing, but execution remains mixed and the next results carry meaningful miss risk.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on whether hospital rent payments become more reliable and whether MPT progresses toward its annualized cash-rent goal. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while a guidance cut or weakness among sector peers could remove support and add pressure to the business outlook.
For a 1-to-3-year view, debt reduction is a real positive, but it does not yet offset weak operating performance and uneven rent collection. The thesis depends on sustained rent recovery and continued balance-sheet progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve positive non-GAAP EPS |
| The company beat earnings estimates with $0.14 EPS non-GAAP. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $0.05 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve free cash flow yield toward positive | A supporting condition in Medical Properties Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >= 0% FCF yield. | Broken | FCF yield remains below -5% beyond FY27 | Free cash flow yield: -13.55% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 2026-13.55 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain positive quarterly revenue growth | A supporting condition in Medical Properties Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >0% YoY quarterly revenue growth. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in any quarter over next year | Revenue growth: 7.87% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0% YoY quarterly revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 10, 20267.873223 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.15 → $-0.06 · observed estimates
$1.08B → $1.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.15 | $1,081,188,220 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.15 | $1,081,188,220 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.15 | $1,081,188,220 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.15 | $1,081,188,220 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.15 | $1,081,188,220 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.15 | $1,081,188,220 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.15 | $1,081,188,220 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.15 | $1,081,188,220 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.12 | $1,056,502,002 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.15 | $1,081,188,220 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.12 | $1,056,502,002 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.15 | $1,081,188,220 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.12 | $1,056,502,002 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.12 | $1,056,502,002 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.12 | $1,056,502,002 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.15 | $1,081,188,220 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.15 | $1,081,188,220 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.12 | $1,056,502,002 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.13 | $1,081,182,890 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.13 | $1,081,182,890 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.12 | $1,056,502,002 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.12 | $1,056,502,002 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.12 | $1,056,502,002 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.12 | $1,056,502,002 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.12 | $1,056,502,002 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.12 | $1,056,502,002 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.09 | $1,057,294,261 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.09 | $1,057,294,261 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.09 | $1,057,294,261 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.09 | $1,057,294,261 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.09 | $1,057,294,261 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.09 | $1,057,294,261 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.09 | $1,057,294,261 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.09 | $1,057,294,261 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.09 | $1,057,294,261 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.09 | $1,057,294,261 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.09 | $1,057,294,261 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.09 | $1,057,294,261 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.09 | $1,057,294,261 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.09 | $1,057,294,261 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.08 | $1,059,973,510 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.08 | $1,059,973,510 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.08 | $1,059,973,510 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.08 | $1,059,973,510 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.08 | $1,059,973,510 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.08 | $1,059,973,510 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.08 | $1,059,973,510 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.05 | $1,055,864,010 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.10 | $1,055,864,010 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.10 | $1,055,864,010 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.10 | $1,055,864,010 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.10 | $1,055,864,010 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.10 | $1,055,864,010 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.10 | $1,055,864,010 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.10 | $1,055,864,010 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.10 | $1,055,864,010 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.10 | $1,055,864,010 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.01 | $1,045,177,011 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.01 | $1,045,177,011 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.01 | $1,045,177,011 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.01 | $1,045,177,011 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.01 | $1,045,177,011 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.01 | $1,045,177,011 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.01 | $1,053,045,155 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.01 | $1,032,127,011 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.01 | $1,023,109,511 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.01 | $1,023,109,511 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.01 | $1,023,109,511 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.06 | $1,001,739,511 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.06 | $997,114,511 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.