Medical Properties Trust (MPT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.01-0.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
MPT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 10, 2026, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (the “Company” or “MPT”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in this Item 2.02, including the information set forth in Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, shall not be deemed “…
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifMPT pays a regular quarterly dividend of $0.09 for each share.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut or stopped. This shows cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Refinancing plans will show how well MPT manages its debt. This helps keep finances stable.
Watch forManagement says they have refinanced their debt that is due soon.
Also watch forManagement says they are having trouble with refinancing their debt that is due soon.
Why it matters: Selling more assets can increase cash flow and help with investments.
Supportive ifTotal asset sales in 2026 exceed $31 million.
Worry ifTotal asset sales in 2026 are below $31 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows how well MPT is doing. It reflects their financial and operational health.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue exceeds $252.1 million reported in Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $252.1 million reported in Q1 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$130 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $310 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,287 loss on $10,000 · 32.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may signal a shift in the maturing real estate sector. This could benefit MPT.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 3% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Collecting cash rent from NOR would show progress in stabilizing rent payments.
Supportive ifMPT begins collecting cash rent from NOR in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo cash rent collected from NOR in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Collecting cash rent from these hospitals is key to reaching $1 billion in annualized cash rent by year-end.
Supportive ifMPT begins collecting cash rent from California hospitals in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash rent collection from California hospitals is delayed or does not begin in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its financial condition. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forEarnings report shows funds from operations (FFO) growth of more than 5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows FFO decline of more than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into financial health and cash rent progress.
Watch forEarnings results show good cash flow. Financial metrics are also better.
Also watch forEarnings results show bad cash flow. Financial metrics are getting worse.
Why it matters: The sale will impact MPT's asset management and cash flow.
Watch forThe last facility in Connecticut has been sold as expected.
Also watch forThe sale of the last facility in Connecticut is late or does not happen.
Why it matters: Increased cash rent payments will help MPT achieve its $1 billion annualized cash rent goal.
Supportive ifCash rent payments from hospitals rise to at least 80% of full rent.
Worry ifCash rent payments stay below 75% of full rent. This shows slower recovery.
Why it matters: Selling the last facility shows MPT wants to improve its portfolio.
Supportive ifMPT completes the sale of the last facility in Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe sale of the last facility is delayed or falls through in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on cash rent collections will show if MPT is on track for $1 billion in annualized cash rent by year-end.
Supportive ifCash rent collections from new tenants exceed $22 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash rent collections from new tenants fall below $22 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better EBITDARM coverage means tenants are doing well. It shows they are financially healthy.
Supportive ifEBITDARM coverage goes up in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifEBITDARM coverage goes down in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in NFFO shows better operations. This helps reach the goal of $1 billion in cash rent.
Supportive ifQ2 NFFO reported above $0.14 per share.
Worry ifQ2 NFFO reported below $0.14 per share.
Why it matters: Keeping total assets steady or growing shows MPT can maintain its portfolio strength.
Supportive ifTotal assets reported at or above $15 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal assets reported below $15 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Refinancing will lower debt. This will help MPT's financial health.
Supportive ifMPT finishes the $2.4 billion refinancing deal as planned.
Worry ifRefinancing does not close or terms get worse. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: This sale will strengthen MPT's balance sheet and support its refinancing efforts.
Supportive ifMPT reports cash proceeds from asset sales reaching or exceeding $172 million in Q3.
Worry ifAsset sale proceeds fall short of $172 million or are delayed.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows MPT's growth plan and steady operations.
Supportive ifMPT announces that annualized cash rent has reached or exceeded $1 billion by the end of 2026.
Worry ifAnnualized cash rent remains below $1 billion by year-end.
Why it matters: Stable rent payments show success in operations and financial trust.
Watch forManagement says rent payments from hospitals are now current and stable.
Also watch forReports show delays or missed rent payments from hospitals.