Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
M-Tron Industries, Inc. (MPTI)
AMEXInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$63.92-1.84%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
AMEXInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.92 → 2.92 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MPTI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain operating income near $2.61M in next 4 quarters | Profit stayed strong at $2.61M operating income. | Intact | Operating income falls below $2.0M over next 4 quarters | Operating income: $1.719M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.6M operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 12, 20261,719,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a smaller-cap growth business with execution risk, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The valuation evidence points to MPTI being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative. The model marks priced-in fragility as low and the valuation as justified, but confidence is medium.
Near term, recent results show record revenue in both 2026-Q1 and Q2, alongside higher adjusted EBITDA, and management is on track with its stated priorities. Risk remains elevated: the company reported an earnings miss in August and has a run of consecutive misses, despite earlier beats.
The multi-year thesis hinges on continued revenue growth, stronger operating income, and productive use of the capital raised through the rights offering. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easier rates or stabilization among sector bellwethers could support the backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MPTI’s thesis rests on sustaining recent operating progress while managing the risk of further execution misses. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"Our second quarter results reflect continued momentum across our defense and aerospace business, with revenue increasing 13.8% and net income increasing 19.9%, and notably, adjusted EBITDA increasing 40.6% from Q2 2025 to $3.4 million," said Cameron Pforr, Chief Executive Officer.” “"Our gross margins were also healthy due to higher revenues and continued focus on manufacturing efficiencies" "We also successfully completed the rights offering on April 27, 2026, issuing 713,362 shares and strengthening our balance sheet with an additional $42.1 million of cash," continued Mr. Pforr.”
Expand operations prudently through capital allocation | A supporting condition in M-Tron Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material increase in debt burden or dilution. | Under Pressure | Debt or dilution materially increases, hurting financial health | Rights offering executed (dilution risk) vs no material dilution target Rights offering approved March 2026; H2 gross margin guided to 41.5-43.5%; recent earnings miss in Q2 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve record revenue growth of at least $59.8M in FY26 | A primary condition in M-Tron Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $59.8M total revenue. | Broken | Revenue falls below $54.4M in FY26 | Revenue: $15.109M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $59.8M total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 202615,109,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"Our second quarter results reflect continued momentum across our defense and aerospace business, with revenue increasing 13.8% and net income increasing 19.9%, and notably, adjusted EBITDA increasing 40.6% from Q2 2025 to $3.4 million," said Cameron Pforr, Chief Executive Officer.” “"Mtron delivered another quarter of record revenue, marking our fourth consecutive record quarter," said Cameron Pforr, Mtron Chief Executive Officer.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.99 → $2.92 · observed estimates
$0.07B → $0.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.51 | $66,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.51 | $66,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.51 | $66,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.51 | $66,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.51 | $66,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.51 | $66,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.51 | $66,500,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.99 | $66,099,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.90 | $67,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.92 | $68,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.