M-Tron Industries, Inc. (MPTI)
AMEXInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$74.57+2.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPTI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MPTI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 12, 2026, M-tron Industries, Inc. ("Mtron" or the "Company") reported its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release containing this information is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated by reference in this
Why it matters: News on capital plans can show how the company plans to grow and invest.
Watch forManagement shares new capital plans in Q2 earnings.
Also watch forNo news on capital plans in Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: The rights offering could affect share price and investor sentiment. Monitoring this will provide insight into market reactions.
Watch forShare price stays the same or goes up after the rights offering. This shows good market response.
Also watch forShare price drops a lot after the rights offering. This shows bad market response.
Why it matters: Exceeding this amount would continue the trend of record revenue growth. It shows strong demand and execution.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was over $14.69M. This shows growth is continuing.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was under $14.69M. This may mean growth is slowing.
Why it matters: A strong earnings beat would reinforce M-Tron's growth story and boost market confidence. It shows effective management.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings were above what analysts expected.
Worry ifQ2 earnings were below what analysts expected.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$184 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $446 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,803 loss on $10,000 · 28.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Information from the Investor Day may explain Mtron's plans and affect how investors feel.
Watch forGood news or plans shared during the Investor Day.
Also watch forUnclear or bad news about future growth plans.
Why it matters: Finishing the rights offering will show how much money was raised and how it helps growth.
Watch forFinal results of the rights offering show successful capital raise.
Also watch forFinal results show much less money raised than expected.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could impact M-Tron's performance and outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth was lower than its usual average.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is higher than its usual average. This shows stability.
Why it matters: The Investor Day will share M-Tron's plans and financial results. This is key for future growth.
Watch forManagement has a clear plan for growth. They are positive about the defense sector.
Also watch forManagement is worried about market conditions. They see challenges to growth.
Why it matters: Final results will show how strong the finances are from the rights offering. This affects future spending.
Supportive ifThe rights offering raises at least $40 million. This will help support growth plans.
Worry ifIf proceeds are much lower than expected, it raises worries about financial health.
Why it matters: Finishing the rights offering could help Mtron's finances and support its growth.
Supportive ifRights offering completion results in $42.1 million in cash for Mtron.
Worry ifThe rights offering does not raise enough money or has big problems.
Why it matters: Maintaining this level shows the company is keeping costs in check while growing revenue.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $2.61M in Q2. This shows strong financial health.
Worry ifOperating income was under $2.61M in Q2. This may mean cost problems.
Why it matters: A stable or growing backlog means Mtron will likely have strong sales in the future.
Supportive ifBacklog exceeds $76 million as of June 30, 2026.
Worry ifBacklog drops below $75 million as of June 30, 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EBITDA margin means costs are rising. This could worry investors.
Worry ifAn adjusted EBITDA margin under 30% means costs are going up. This hurts profits.
Less concerning ifAn adjusted EBITDA margin over 30% means costs are managed well.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal weakening demand in aerospace and defense sectors.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EBITDA may mean higher costs or less profit.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $3 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA stays above $3 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Slower backlog growth may mean lower sales and demand in important markets.
Worry ifBacklog growth slows to below 20% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifBacklog growth remains above 20% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: News on strategic investments may show future growth chances and market position.
Watch forManagement will share news about new investments or partnerships in Q3.
Also watch forNo news on strategic investments or partnerships in Q3.