M-Tron Industries, Inc. (MPTI)
AMEXInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$57.30-10.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MPTI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 31 industry peers
MPTI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 12, 2026, M-tron Industries, Inc. ("Mtron" or the "Company") reported its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release containing this information is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated by reference in this
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin fell from 43.6% a year earlier. The company linked much of the drop to stock pay that it said would not recur at similar levels.
Supportive ifThe next report shows gross margin above 41.2%. It also shows lower stock pay in manufacturing costs.
Worry ifThe next report shows gross margin at or below 41.2%, without a similar stock-pay charge to explain the result.
Why it matters: Backlog grew 37.2% year over year in Q2. New orders and shipments will show if demand remains strong.
Supportive ifThe next report shows backlog above $84.0 million, with growth from new aerospace, defense, avionics, or space orders.
Worry ifThe next report shows backlog below $84.0 million, with no new program orders cited.
Why it matters: Revenue rose 13.8% in Q2, after 15.3% growth in Q1. The next report tests whether that pace continues.
Supportive ifOn November 11, MPTI reports Q3 revenue above the same quarter last year.
Worry ifOn November 11, MPTI reports Q3 revenue at or below the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: More shares from the April rights offering weighed on Q2 diluted earnings per share. The next report shows whether higher earnings offset that share count.
Watch forThe next report shows diluted earnings per share above the same quarter last year, with net income also higher.
Also watch forThe next report shows diluted earnings per share below the same quarter last year. Diluted shares remain above last year's level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $474 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,313 loss on $10,000 · 43.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA rose 40.6% year over year in Q2, while engineering, sales, and office costs also rose. The next report tests whether earnings keep pace with sales.
Supportive ifThe next report shows adjusted EBITDA above the same quarter last year, with revenue also higher.
Worry ifThe next report shows adjusted EBITDA at or below the same quarter last year, despite higher revenue.