Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-03 · fmp
Mercury Systems (MRCY)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$65.55-8.65%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.22 → 2.22 EPS · FY ending Jul 3, 2028 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MRCY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase cash flow from operations | A primary condition in Mercury Systems's published investment case. The stated target is cash flow from operations >= $20 million. | Intact | cash flow from operations remains below $10 million next year | Cash from operations: $42.153M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: cash flow from operations >= $20 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 18, 202642,153,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-and-improvement story with elevated risk, rather than a proven durable compounder: MRCY is still loss-making overall, though recent operating results show progress. The thesis state is watch, while the latest signal has improved from mixed to mildly favorable.
The valuation is at a sizable premium to peers, with a durable premium identified as the main driver. The expectations gap is modest, but confidence in that estimate is low, so the market appears to recognize lasting strengths without the evidence making the valuation case certain.
Near-term, revenue, backlog, and bookings growth plus improving adjusted EBITDA and operating income support management’s execution record. Cash flow progress is mixed, and recent earnings have been erratic, including a run of misses; performance has also lagged the industry cohort. The sector backdrop is a headwind, despite recent guidance having been raised.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue and backlog growth translating into stronger profitability and cash flow. A guidance reversal after the recent raise could damage management credibility, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the industry backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies would remove that support.
For the 1-to-3-year view, MRCY shows tangible growth and margin progress, but the premium valuation, ongoing losses, and uneven execution leave the thesis unconfirmed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Our focus will remain on executing for our customers, scaling efficiently, and continuing our progression toward our targeted growth, margin, and free cash flow profile.”” Operating cash flow was $2.182 million in 2026-Q1.
Improve operating income to positive territory | Operating income improved from a $17.3 million loss to $5.2 million profit. | Intact | operating income falls below $0 next year | Operating income: $17.008M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: operating income >= $5 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 18, 202617,008,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain organic revenue growth near 11.5% YoY | A primary condition in Mercury Systems's published investment case. The stated target is >=11% YoY revenue growth. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 8% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.15 → $2.22 · observed estimates
$1.15B → $1.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | $2.15 | $1,154,365,067 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.20 | $1,186,831,425 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.19 | $1,188,074,040 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.19 | $1,188,074,040 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.19 | $1,188,074,040 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.19 | $1,188,074,040 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.19 | $1,188,074,040 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.22 | $1,197,055,340 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.22 | $1,197,055,340 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.22 | $1,197,055,340 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.22 | $1,197,055,340 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.22 | $1,204,596,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.22 | $1,209,169,545 | 8 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.