Mercury Systems (MRCY)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$65.55-8.65%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MRCY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
MRCY — officer change
Dated 2026-11-03
Director — Jean Bua, Gerard J. DeMuro, Scott Ostfeld: The filing reports the routine election of three directors for a standard three-year term at the annual meeting.
Why it matters: Management raised its FY27 organic growth outlook after strong bookings. Growth above that outlook would show orders are turning into sales.
Supportive ifAt the next results report, FY27 organic revenue growth is above the outlook given on August 18, 2026.
Worry ifFY27 organic revenue growth is below the August outlook, or management cuts it.
Why it matters: Q4 bookings reached $660 million, and backlog topped $1.9 billion. More orders than sales would support the growth outlook.
Supportive ifAt the next results report, bookings exceed revenue and book-to-bill is above 1.0.
Worry ifAt the next results report, bookings are below revenue and book-to-bill is below 1.0.
Why it matters: Q4 free cash flow fell to $29 million from $34 million a year earlier. Cash flow progress has been mixed.
Supportive ifA later quarter reports free cash flow above $29 million.
Worry ifA later quarter reports free cash flow at or below $29 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$200 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $544 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,314 loss on $10,000 · 43.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.