Mercury Systems (MRCY)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$82.42-2.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MRCY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 30.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MRCY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-18
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing. Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures I…
Why it matters: Lower bookings show less demand. This can hurt future revenue growth.
Worry ifBookings fall below $660 million in Q1 FY27.
Less concerning ifBookings exceed $660 million in Q1 FY27.
Why it matters: A drop in margin may mean higher costs or problems. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 15%. This shows possible cost problems.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 15%. This shows good cost management.
Why it matters: Negative operating cash flow would raise concerns about liquidity and financial health. This is crucial for investor trust.
Worry ifOperating cash flow turns negative in Q3 FY26.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow remains positive in Q3 FY26.
Why it matters: Slower backlog growth may mean lower revenue expectations in the future.
Worry ifBacklog growth was below 17.9% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifBacklog growth was above 17.9% compared to last year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$225 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $544 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,470 loss on $10,000 · 34.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for business activities and growth plans.
Supportive ifCash from operations increases to over $70 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $60 million in Q2.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may mean lower demand or problems in operations. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 FY26 revenue growth below 10% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 FY26 revenue growth remains above 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for the company's long-term success and market position.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 10% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 5% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow from operations would show better financial health. This could support future investments and growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $10 million in Q4 FY26.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains below $10 million in Q4 FY26.
Why it matters: A decline means there could be cash flow problems. This can hurt future investments.
Worry ifFree cash flow drops below $29 million in Q1 FY27.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow remains at or above $29 million in Q1 FY27.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is making more money and growing revenue.
Watch forThe earnings report shows operating income over $5 million. Revenue grew by more than 10%.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows operating income under $5 million. Revenue grew by less than 5%.
Why it matters: Slower backlog growth could indicate reduced future revenue potential. This would be a key signal for investors.
Worry ifBacklog growth slows to under 10% year-over-year in Q3 FY26.
Less concerning ifBacklog growth remains above 10% year-over-year in Q3 FY26.
Why it matters: Strong bookings signal ongoing demand and support revenue growth. It confirms management's growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ1 FY27 bookings are over $350 million. This shows strong demand is still there.
Worry ifBookings are under $300 million. This points to weaker demand and possible problems.
Why it matters: A high margin shows good cost control. It also means the company runs well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays above 16% in the next quarters.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 15%. This shows there may be cost issues.
Why it matters: Stable free cash flow means the company makes good cash. This helps future investments.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $30 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $20 million, raising concerns about cash generation.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows the company is doing well. It meets market demand.
Supportive ifQ1 FY27 revenue growth exceeds 10% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 revenue growth is under 5% year-over-year. This shows there may be challenges.