Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$26.50-1.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.25 → 3.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MRP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve approximately 10% AFFO per share growth in 2026 | They aim for 10% growth in AFFO per share in 2026. | Intact | AFFO per share growth falls below 10% in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MRP is a real estate platform-growth investment with robust earnings quality and moderate risk. The long-term thesis is intact, though management execution is volatile and recent financial performance is neutral.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. Priced-in fragility is low, and the tag is justified; valuation has risen recently, so the setup has become less cheap than before.
In the near term, recent revenue growth, capital deployment, and an earnings beat support the operating picture, while the reported miss history and risk of a guidance cut remain concerns. Over the multi-year view, expanding builder relationships and investment outside the Lennar program support growth, but leverage and liquidity weakened in the latest reported figures.
A favorable scenario depends partly on interest-rate cuts supporting rate-sensitive real estate. The thesis also depends on continued platform growth and diversification without further weakening financial flexibility. A guidance cut or cracks among sector bellwethers could remove support for the business setup.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MRP’s thesis remains intact, with growth and diversification progress balanced by uneven management execution and weaker leverage metrics. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Millrose plans to deploy $1 billion more capital by mid-2026. |
| Intact |
| Additional invested capital deployed falls below $1 billion by mid-2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain debt-to-capital ratio below 33% | The company keeps debt below 33% of capital. | Intact | Debt-to-capital ratio rises above 33% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain quarterly dividends near $0.77 per share | Dividends are steady at about $0.77 per share each quarter. | Intact | Quarterly dividend falls significantly below $0.77 per share | Dividend per share: $0.79 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$0.77 quarterly dividend per share. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20260.79 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.23 → $3.33 · observed estimates
$0.88B → $0.92B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.23 | $881,507,791 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.23 | $881,507,791 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.23 | $892,939,350 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.23 | $882,006,910 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.23 | $882,006,910 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.24 | $882,050,510 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.24 | $882,050,510 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.24 | $882,050,510 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.24 | $879,767,041 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.24 | $879,767,041 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.24 | $879,767,041 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.24 | $879,767,041 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.24 | $882,050,510 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.24 | $882,050,510 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.26 | $861,098,091 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.26 | $861,098,091 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.26 | $861,098,091 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.21 | $859,899,710 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.26 | $861,098,091 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.26 | $861,098,091 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.26 | $861,098,091 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.26 | $861,098,091 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.26 | $861,098,091 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.26 | $861,098,091 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.26 | $861,098,091 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.26 | $861,098,091 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.26 | $870,592,917 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.26 | $874,237,750 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.23 | $872,454,583 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.23 | $872,454,583 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.23 | $872,454,583 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.23 | $872,454,583 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.23 | $872,454,583 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.23 | $872,454,583 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.23 | $872,454,583 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.23 | $872,454,583 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.25 | $887,755,583 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.25 | $887,755,583 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.25 | $887,755,583 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.25 | $887,755,583 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.25 | $887,755,617 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.24 | $886,421,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.28 | $872,563,229 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.33 | $901,046,729 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.33 | $921,222,005 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.33 | $921,222,005 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.33 | $921,222,005 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.33 | $921,222,005 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.33 | $921,222,005 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.33 | $921,222,005 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.