Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$26.93+3.98%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MRP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MRP — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-10-06
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of Registrant. The information provided in
Why it matters: Millrose raised its year-end AFFO run-rate outlook to $0.82–$0.84 per share. Meeting the low end would support its cash growth story.
Supportive ifReported Q4 AFFO run rate is at least $0.82 per share.
Worry ifReported Q4 AFFO run rate is below $0.82 per share.
Why it matters: Millrose funded $488 million of preferred equity tied to Dream Finders' Beazer deal. Timely payments would show this large new investment is paying as planned.
Worry ifMillrose reports that Dream Finders paid the 12% preferred dividend on time and reports no payment shortfall.
Less concerning ifMillrose reports a missed or late preferred dividend payment, or a change to the 12% dividend terms.
Why it matters: Millrose spent about $333 million on completed homes to test rental operations. Reported rent and costs will show how this new asset type performs.
Watch forA later report lists rental income and costs. Rental income is higher than operating costs for the pilot homes.
Also watch forA later report shows rental income below operating costs, or a loss on the pilot homes.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$94 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $337 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,373 loss on $10,000 · 33.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.