Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.02+0.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MRP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers
MRP — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-05
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 5, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Millrose Properties, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), entered into that certain Amendment No. 1 to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (“Amendment No. 1”), among the Company, the guarantors party thereto, the lenders and issuing banks party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent (in such capacity, the “Administrative Agent”), which amended that certain Amended and Resta…
Why it matters: Crossing this mark shows strong growth. It also shows successful capital use in the portfolio.
Supportive ifTotal assets are over $10 billion.
Worry ifTotal assets are under $9.7 billion.
Why it matters: More sales to Lennar show strong demand and steady cash flow.
Supportive ifHomesite sales to Lennar exceed $626 million in Q2.
Worry ifHomesite sales to Lennar fall below $500 million in Q2.
Why it matters: An increase would show strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says they will raise the quarterly dividend above $0.77 per share.
Worry ifManagement keeps the dividend at $0.77 per share or lowers it.
Why it matters: More homebuilders mean Millrose can reach more customers and earn more money.
Supportive ifThe counterparty base expands to more than 17 homebuilders.
Worry ifThe counterparty base remains at 17 or decreases.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $265 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,872 loss on $10,000 · 18.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Reaching this amount shows strong growth and good use of capital.
Supportive ifTotal invested capital is $10 billion or more.
Worry ifTotal invested capital is less than $9 billion.
Why it matters: Adding more partners helps Millrose grow and diversify. This is important for stability.
Supportive ifThe number of partners grows to 20 or more homebuilders.
Worry ifThe number of partners stays at 19 or goes down.
Why it matters: A net income above $130M would indicate strong performance in both revenue and cost management. This is key for investor sentiment.
Supportive ifNet income exceeds $130M in Q2.
Worry ifNet income is below $110M in Q2.
Why it matters: This investment is key for growth and expanding the portfolio.
Supportive ifTotal new capital used is $2 billion by the end of 2026.
Worry ifTotal new capital used is less than $1 billion by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this target would show strong cash flow growth and support dividend increases.
Supportive ifQ3 AFFO per share reported at $0.80 or higher.
Worry ifQ3 AFFO per share reported below $0.78.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows that the company is managing costs well. This helps meet efficiency goals.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $180M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $150M in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher earnings show strong demand. They also show good use of capital.
Supportive ifNet cash proceeds from homesite sales exceed $1 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet cash proceeds fall below $800 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Good capital management helps Millrose grow. It also keeps the company financially strong.
Watch forMillrose shares news of new capital management plans or credit deals.
Also watch forMillrose has trouble managing its money or raises debt above 33%.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows good market conditions. It also means the company is doing well.
Watch forQ2 revenue growth reported above 7% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 revenue growth reported below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows strong earnings and cash flow.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend is $0.78 or more.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend is $0.77 or less.
Why it matters: How Millrose uses its money is important for growth and staying strong in the market.
Supportive ifBy mid-2026, an extra $1 billion will be invested.
Worry ifLess than $1 billion is deployed by mid-2026.
Why it matters: More homebuilders would show growth in Millrose's business.
Supportive ifThe counterparty base has 20 or more homebuilders.
Worry ifThere are 19 or fewer homebuilders in the counterparty base.
Why it matters: Using this money is important for growth. It shows management can carry out its plan.
Supportive ifManagement says they will use $2 billion in new money by the end of 2026.
Worry ifManagement fails to deploy at least $1 billion by mid-2026.
Why it matters: Management aims for about 10% growth in AFFO per share for 2026. This shows strong business performance.
Supportive ifManagement says AFFO per share will grow by at least 10% each year in updates.
Worry ifIf management lowers the AFFO growth target, it may mean there are challenges ahead.