Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.98-3.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.65 → 0.52 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MRTN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities at or above $33 million | The company shows progress in operating cash flow, reaching $33 million in Q1 2026. | Broken | Cash from operating activities falls below $33 million over next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $22.567M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=33 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 202622,567,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MRTN is a transportation business with robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance, but its sector backdrop is a headwind. The long-term thesis is intact, though the company’s momentum has weakened sharply and management’s progress on efficiency remains mixed.
MRTN is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence flags that premium as unjustified. The expectations gap suggests some room between current expectations and the model’s view, but confidence in that estimate is low; valuation is the main source of fragility.
In the near term, higher truckload rates and a slight quarterly improvement in the operating expense ratio support the business, while the weaker nine-month efficiency result tempers that progress. A recent earnings miss and a sharp decline in company momentum add risk, although the evidence still places recent performance in the top half of the industry.
The near-term thesis could weaken if MRTN cuts guidance on its next call. Results and guidance from sector peers ODFL, XPO, and KNX are also important signals: continued strength could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on sustaining pricing and improving efficiency despite a challenging sector backdrop. The business case remains intact in the evidence, but the expensive valuation leaves limited room for execution to weaken. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Marten Transport, Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or improve cost efficiency. |
| Intact |
| Cost controls weaken, leading to margin pressure or losses |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain dividend payout of $0.06 per share | It pays a steady $0.06 dividend per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.06 in next 4 quarters | Dividend per share: $0.06 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.06 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.06 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 10% next year | Analysts expect about 10% revenue growth next year. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below ~9.9% in FY27 | Revenue growth: 1.25% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=9.9% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 20261.252325 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.63 → $0.52 · observed estimates
$0.99B → $0.97B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.63 | $988,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.63 | $988,733,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.65 | $985,400,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.66 | $980,566,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.66 | $980,566,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.66 | $980,566,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.66 | $980,566,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.66 | $980,566,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.66 | $980,566,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.66 | $980,566,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.66 | $980,566,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.66 | $980,566,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.66 | $980,566,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.66 | $980,566,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.66 | $980,566,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.66 | $980,566,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.65 | $978,033,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.65 | $978,033,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.65 | $978,033,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.65 | $978,033,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.65 | $978,033,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.65 | $978,033,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.65 | $978,033,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.65 | $982,033,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.65 | $982,033,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.65 | $982,033,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.65 | $981,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.65 | $981,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.65 | $981,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.65 | $981,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.65 | $981,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.65 | $981,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.65 | $981,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.65 | $981,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.65 | $981,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.65 | $981,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.62 | $981,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.62 | $981,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.62 | $981,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.62 | $981,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.62 | $981,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.62 | $981,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.62 | $981,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.60 | $972,200,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.52 | $965,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.52 | $965,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.52 | $965,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.52 | $965,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.52 | $965,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.52 | $965,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.52 | $965,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.52 | $965,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.52 | $965,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.52 | $965,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.52 | $965,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.52 | $965,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.52 | $965,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.