Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.40+1.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MRTN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 238.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 227.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
MRTN — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-25
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 16, 2022, Marten Transport, Ltd. (“Marten”) entered into a credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with U.S. Bank National Association, as agent (the “Agent”), and certain banks party thereto (the “Banks”). The Credit Agreement provides for a five-year unsecured revolving credit facility in an aggregate principal amount of up to $30 million. Certain subsidiaries of Marten guarantee Marten’s obligations under the Credit Agreement and any…
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health and care for shareholders. Cutting it may worry about cash flow and profits.
Watch forDividend payout remains at $0.06 per share for Q3 2026.
Also watch forDividend payout is reduced below $0.06 per share.
Why it matters: Stabilizing net income would show that cost controls are working despite market pressures. This could improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 reaches or exceeds $2 million.
Worry ifNet income drops below $1 million. This shows ongoing financial strain.
Why it matters: A decline in net income would show ongoing struggles in the freight market and cost pressures.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 reported below $1 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q2 2026 reported above $1 million.
Why it matters: If expenses go over 99%, it shows worse cost control and profit problems.
Worry ifOperating expenses are over 99% of revenue for Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses are below 99% of revenue for Q3.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$135 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $325 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,392 loss on $10,000 · 23.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show details about revenue, costs, and overall financial health.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth or better profits.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report reveals further declines in revenue or net income.
Why it matters: An increase in cash from operations shows improved cash flow and financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities is more than $35 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operating activities is $35 million or less in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue would show problems in the freight market recovery.
Worry ifQ3 operating revenue down year over year worse than -8%.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating revenue declines less than 8% year over year or grows.
Why it matters: Lower costs show better control of spending and efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating costs drop below 96% of revenue.
Worry ifOperating costs stay above 98% of revenue.
Why it matters: More cash flow from operations would help with investments and financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations is over $30 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations stays below $25 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Management's views on the freight market can show future revenue and pricing power.
Watch forManagement says the freight market recovery is speeding up due to new rules.
Also watch forManagement says the freight market recovery is slowing down or going backward.