Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN)
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.98-3.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MRTN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 47.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MRTN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 22, 2026, the company issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of the company’s press release dated October 22, 2026 announcing the company’s financial results for this period. The press release also includes a discussion of operating revenue, net of fuel surcharge revenue; and operating expenses as a percentage of operating revenue, with bot…
Why it matters: Q3 net income rose from a year ago, but the nine-month total fell. Another quarterly drop would deepen the earnings decline.
Worry ifMarten reports Q4 net income below $2.9 million, the Q3 2026 result.
Less concerning ifMarten reports Q4 net income above $2.9 million.
Why it matters: Higher fuel costs hurt Q3 earnings, while surcharge timing delayed recovery. Continued pressure can weigh on profit.
Worry ifManagement says net fuel costs remain above the first-half quarterly average. Or, it cites a fuel-related earnings hit in Q4.
Less concerning ifManagement says net fuel costs are no higher than the first-half quarterly average. Fuel costs do not reduce earnings.
Why it matters: Higher rates can lift earnings as the freight market tightens. The latest gain came with very low profit.
Supportive ifTruckload average rate per total mile, net of fuel, rises more than 14.1% year over year in the next report.
Worry ifThat rate gain falls below 14.1% year over year or turns negative.
Why it matters: Health insurance costs cut Q3 net income by $2.0 million versus first-half quarterly levels. A lower bill would ease this drag.
Worry ifQ4 health insurance cost stays at least $2.0 million above the first-half quarterly average.
Less concerning ifQ4 health insurance cost returns to the first-half quarterly average or lower.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$118 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $315 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,599 loss on $10,000 · 36.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.