Microsoft (MSFT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-07-07
$388.84+0.54%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $388.84. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $389 MSFT trades at 23× p/e, below its 47× p/e peer median, but our blended $349 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $400–$680. Note: our $349 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($400–$680). Not investment advice.
$400.00 – $680.00 (median $525.00) · 19 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 53% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 2.8 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $11.23/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $525.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $283.69 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $283.84 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $79.97 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $145.05 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $136.38 | 47.4 | 2.88 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $265.65 | 27.1 | 9.79 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $795.53 | 47.4 | 16.80 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $199.91 | 4.7 | 42.75 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $259.60 | 15.5 | 16.80 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $108.18 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $461.21 | 27.5 | 16.80 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $825.60 | 47.4 | 17.43 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $211.00 | 47.4 | 4.46 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $337.43 | 27.1 | 12.44 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $1054.74 | 47.4 | 22.27 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $277.56 | 4.7 | 59.36 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $344.18 | 15.5 | 22.27 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $611.48 | 27.5 | 22.27 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $282.25 | 47.4 | 5.96 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $395.76 | 27.1 | 14.59 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $1394.90 | 47.4 | 29.46 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $367.07 | 4.7 | 78.50 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $455.18 | 15.5 | 29.46 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $808.69 | 27.5 | 29.46 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.