Microsoft (MSFT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$555.80+6.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSFT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 56.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 21.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MSFT — debt issuance
Dated 2026-11-04
Other Events On October 29, 2026, Microsoft Corporation (the “Company”) entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with the several underwriters named therein, for which J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, UBS Securities LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC acted as representatives, for the issuance and sale by the Company of $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s Floating Rate Notes due 2028 (the “2028 Floating Rate Notes”), $2,000,000,000 aggregate prin…
Why it matters: Microsoft has grouped Azure, apps, and agents in one segment. The new view can show whether growth spans the stack.
Watch forAgents and Infra revenue grows at least 25% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forAgents and Infra revenue growth falls below 20% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Azure growth tests demand for Microsoft's cloud and AI services. It rose 48% in the latest quarter.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, Azure revenue grows at least 45% year over year.
Worry ifIn the next reported quarter, Azure revenue growth falls below 40% year over year.
Why it matters: Windows OEM and Devices fell 22% in the latest quarter. A smaller drop would show that this business is stabilizing.
Watch forWindows OEM and Devices revenue decline narrows to less than 10% year over year in a reported quarter.
Also watch forWindows OEM and Devices revenue declines at least 20% year over year again.
Why it matters: Microsoft Cloud growth reached 30% in the latest quarter. A sharp slowdown would weaken the growth signal.
Worry ifMicrosoft Cloud revenue growth falls below 25% year over year in a reported quarter.
Less concerning ifMicrosoft Cloud revenue growth stays at or above 30% year over year in the next reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $282 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,111 loss on $10,000 · 31.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The sector is still growing, but its trend is easing. A drop below its median would add pressure to Microsoft's growth backdrop.
Worry ifThe sector's revenue growth drops below its median, as flagged in the sector outlook.
Less concerning ifThe sector's revenue growth stays at or above its median in the next sector update.