Microsoft (MSFT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$499.70-2.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSFT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 37.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MSFT — officer change
Dated 2026-06-05
Director — Reid Hoffman: Reid Hoffman decided not to stand for re-election as a director.
Why it matters: Operating income growth is key for financial health. A decline could indicate rising costs or slowing sales.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 20% from last year.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth is above 20% from last year.
Why it matters: This metric indicates future revenue. A big increase shows strong demand for Microsoft's services.
Supportive ifCommercial performance obligations rise by more than 90% from last year.
Worry ifCommercial performance obligations rise by less than 80% from last year.
Why it matters: The AI revenue run rate shows how well Microsoft is growing in this key area. Strong growth supports the business outlook.
Supportive ifAI revenue run rate surpassing $40 billion.
Worry ifAI revenue run rate failing to maintain above $37 billion.
Why it matters: This would signal that Microsoft is struggling to grow, which is a key priority.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth stays above 10% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$135 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $284 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,464 loss on $10,000 · 34.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in EPS may show lower profits and affect how investors feel.
Worry ifQ2 diluted EPS reported above $4.00.
Less concerning ifQ2 diluted EPS reported below $4.00.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show strong cash flow. It also shows management believes in the company's future.
Supportive ifShare buybacks are expected to be over $10 billion next quarter.
Worry ifShare buybacks are expected to be under $8 billion.
Why it matters: Changes in this growth rate indicate shifts in consumer demand and market trends.
Watch forMicrosoft 365 Consumer cloud revenue growth exceeds 29% year over year.
Also watch forMicrosoft 365 Consumer cloud revenue growth falls below 29% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow could signal financial stress. This may affect capital returns to shareholders.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $35.8 billion in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations reported at or above $35.8 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If the sector growth slows, it could impact Microsoft's revenue growth.
Worry ifSector growth rate reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector growth rate remains above its median.
Why it matters: This shows weaker demand for Azure services. It will hurt overall cloud performance.
Worry ifAzure revenue growth reported below 39% year over year.
Less concerning ifAzure revenue growth remains at or above 39% year over year.
Why it matters: Shareholder returns show financial strength. Lower returns may mean cash flow problems.
Worry ifShareholder returns are below $10 billion in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifShareholder returns are above $10 billion. This shows strong cash flow.
Why it matters: This milestone shows strong demand for cloud services. It supports Microsoft's AI and cloud plans.
Supportive ifAzure revenue reported above $100 billion in the next earnings release.
Worry ifAzure revenue reported below $100 billion in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: High growth in cloud revenue shows a strong market position. There is strong demand for services.
Supportive ifMicrosoft Cloud revenue grew more than 25% from last year in the next report.
Worry ifMicrosoft Cloud revenue grew less than 20% from last year in the next report.
Why it matters: Growth in paid seats shows customer trust in Microsoft’s AI. It shows product adoption.
Supportive ifMicrosoft 365 Copilot had over 35 million paid seats in the next earnings release.
Worry ifMicrosoft 365 Copilot had below 30 million paid seats in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: A big drop in XBOX revenue could show problems in gaming. It may affect overall performance.
Worry ifXBOX content and services revenue fell more than 10% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifXBOX content and services revenue fell less than 5% year-over-year.