Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Microsoft (MSFT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$555.80+6.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
23.48 → 24.06 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 29 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 29 to 29; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MSFT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful execution of AI and cloud infrastructure strategy | The company manages costs and focuses on cloud and AI infrastructure. | Intact | Significant setbacks in AI/cloud strategy or market share loss | Qualitative: Azure growth confirmed, AI spend efficient Azure growth and AI spending confirmed in Q1 call. Stock jumped 3.5% on debt sale and efficient AI spend narrative. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large technology growth business with a multi-year view centered on expanding cloud and AI infrastructure and services. The thesis is intact, recent financial performance is strong, and management’s main priorities are mostly on track, though overall risk is elevated.
The evidence labels valuation as stretched, while also indicating Microsoft is cheap versus peers; the valuation model has low confidence. The expectations gap is modest, and fragility is rated low, so the snapshot does not point to a strong assumption that execution will fail.
Near-term results show strong delivery: in 2026-Q3, Microsoft Cloud revenue grew 30% and Azure revenue grew 48% year over year, while operating income grew 21%. Cloud and AI expansion has been a stated priority across all seven supplied quarters, but the evidence rates overall risk as elevated and notes that peers have recently missed expectations.
Over the next few quarters, the key company-specific risk is a guidance cut on the next call. The broader technology backdrop could improve if the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates or sector peers stabilize, but the supplied evidence does not establish when either might happen.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued cloud and AI growth and disciplined investment, with recent results supporting that case. Stretched valuation expectations and the risk of weaker guidance remain important uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Microsoft grows cloud revenue strongly, with $54.5 billion and 29% growth. |
| Broken |
| YoY cloud revenue growth falls below 20% in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize Xbox and gaming revenue after restructuring | A supporting condition in Microsoft's published investment case. The stated target is Gaming revenue stabilizes or grows within next 4 quarters. | Broken | Gaming revenue declines persistently over next 4 quarters | Gaming unavailable in the latest segment data Last available Gaming revenue: $5.341B in FY2026-Q3. Latest source period is FY2026-Q4; a broader segment cannot substitute for this measure. Apr 29, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income grows at least 15% annually | Profit rises with operating income at $38.4 billion, up 20%. | Intact | Operating income growth falls below 15% in FY27 | Operating income growth: 20.95% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202620.953083 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$22.77 → $24.06 · observed estimates
$456.59B → $475.99B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $22.77 | $456,585,857,720 | 29 / 40 |
| 2026-07-25 | $22.77 | $456,585,857,720 | 29 / 40 |
| 2026-07-26 | $22.77 | $456,585,857,720 | 29 / 40 |
| 2026-07-27 | $22.77 | $456,585,857,720 | 29 / 40 |
| 2026-07-28 | $22.78 | $456,618,704,203 | 29 / 40 |
| 2026-07-29 | $22.78 | $456,618,704,203 | 29 / 40 |
| 2026-07-30 | $22.59 | $456,147,540,030 | 27 / 40 |
| 2026-07-31 | $23.25 | $464,753,452,886 | 22 / 31 |
| 2026-08-01 | $23.25 | $464,753,452,886 | 22 / 31 |
| 2026-08-02 | $23.28 | $465,582,554,830 | 32 / 48 |
| 2026-08-03 | $23.25 | $465,859,474,297 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-04 | $23.28 | $465,582,554,830 | 32 / 48 |
| 2026-08-05 | $23.47 | $466,326,461,870 | 33 / 49 |
| 2026-08-06 | $23.25 | $465,859,474,297 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-07 | $23.25 | $465,859,474,297 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-08 | $23.47 | $467,462,563,910 | 33 / 49 |
| 2026-08-09 | $23.47 | $467,462,563,910 | 33 / 49 |
| 2026-08-10 | $23.47 | $467,462,563,910 | 33 / 49 |
| 2026-08-12 | $23.25 | $465,859,474,297 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-13 | $23.25 | $465,859,474,297 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-14 | $23.25 | $465,859,474,297 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-15 | $23.25 | $465,859,474,297 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-16 | $23.25 | $465,859,474,297 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-17 | $23.25 | $465,859,474,297 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-18 | $23.25 | $465,859,474,297 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-19 | $23.25 | $465,859,474,297 | 27 / 36 |
| 2026-08-20 | $23.51 | $467,685,530,960 | 28 / 37 |
| 2026-08-21 | $23.51 | $467,685,530,960 | 28 / 37 |
| 2026-08-22 | $23.48 | $467,331,820,341 | 28 / 37 |
| 2026-08-23 | $23.48 | $467,331,821,605 | 28 / 37 |
| 2026-08-24 | $23.48 | $467,331,821,605 | 28 / 37 |
| 2026-08-25 | $23.48 | $466,662,143,258 | 28 / 38 |
| 2026-08-26 | $23.48 | $466,662,143,258 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-08-27 | $23.48 | $466,662,143,258 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-08-28 | $23.48 | $466,662,143,258 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-08-29 | $23.48 | $466,662,143,258 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-08-30 | $23.48 | $466,662,143,258 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-08-31 | $23.48 | $466,662,143,258 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-01 | $23.48 | $466,662,143,258 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-02 | $23.48 | $466,662,143,258 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-03 | $23.48 | $466,662,143,258 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-04 | $23.48 | $466,662,169,510 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-05 | $23.48 | $466,662,169,510 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-06 | $23.48 | $466,662,169,510 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-07 | $23.48 | $466,662,169,510 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-08 | $23.48 | $466,662,169,510 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-09 | $23.48 | $466,662,169,510 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-10 | $23.48 | $466,662,172,669 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-11 | $23.48 | $466,656,447,179 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-12 | $23.48 | $466,656,447,179 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-13 | $23.48 | $466,656,447,179 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-14 | $23.48 | $466,656,447,179 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-15 | $23.48 | $466,656,447,179 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-16 | $23.49 | $466,773,918,073 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-17 | $23.49 | $466,773,918,073 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-18 | $23.49 | $466,773,918,073 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-19 | $23.49 | $466,773,918,073 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-20 | $23.49 | $466,773,918,073 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-21 | $23.49 | $466,773,918,073 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-22 | $23.49 | $466,773,918,073 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-09-23 | $23.48 | $466,579,427,877 | 28 / 38 |
| 2026-09-24 | $23.48 | $466,579,427,877 | 28 / 38 |
| 2026-09-25 | $23.48 | $466,579,427,877 | 28 / 38 |
| 2026-09-26 | $23.48 | $466,579,427,877 | 28 / 38 |
| 2026-09-27 | $23.48 | $466,579,427,877 | 28 / 38 |
| 2026-09-28 | $23.48 | $466,579,427,877 | 28 / 38 |
| 2026-09-29 | $23.48 | $466,579,623,955 | 28 / 38 |
| 2026-09-30 | $23.48 | $466,579,623,955 | 28 / 38 |
| 2026-10-01 | $23.48 | $466,579,721,995 | 29 / 38 |
| 2026-10-02 | $23.48 | $466,621,329,838 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-03 | $23.48 | $466,621,133,759 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-04 | $23.48 | $466,621,133,759 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-05 | $23.48 | $466,621,133,759 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-06 | $23.51 | $467,269,663,171 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-07 | $23.50 | $467,270,976,897 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-08 | $23.50 | $467,270,976,897 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-09 | $23.50 | $467,270,976,897 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-10 | $23.50 | $467,270,976,897 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-11 | $23.51 | $467,270,976,897 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-12 | $23.51 | $467,270,976,897 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-13 | $23.50 | $467,235,839,642 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-14 | $23.50 | $467,235,839,642 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-15 | $23.50 | $467,235,839,642 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-16 | $23.53 | $467,581,480,790 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-17 | $23.53 | $467,581,480,790 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-18 | $23.54 | $467,608,350,731 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-19 | $23.54 | $467,608,350,731 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-20 | $23.54 | $468,092,112,579 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-21 | $23.52 | $467,819,546,171 | 30 / 39 |
| 2026-10-22 | $23.52 | $467,819,546,171 | 30 / 39 |
| 2026-10-23 | $23.53 | $468,326,743,840 | 30 / 40 |
| 2026-10-24 | $23.53 | $468,277,580,742 | 30 / 40 |
| 2026-10-25 | $23.53 | $468,277,580,742 | 30 / 40 |
| 2026-10-26 | $23.53 | $468,208,929,253 | 30 / 40 |
| 2026-10-27 | $23.53 | $468,208,929,253 | 30 / 40 |
| 2026-10-28 | $23.63 | $469,023,817,238 | 30 / 40 |
| 2026-10-29 | $23.85 | $471,796,824,477 | 30 / 40 |
| 2026-10-30 | $23.97 | $474,582,568,810 | 29 / 39 |
| 2026-10-31 | $24.03 | $475,356,747,801 | 28 / 39 |
| 2026-11-01 | $24.03 | $475,356,747,801 | 28 / 39 |
| 2026-11-02 | $24.03 | $475,356,747,801 | 27 / 39 |
| 2026-11-03 | $24.05 | $475,677,067,606 | 29 / 41 |
| 2026-11-04 | $24.06 | $475,993,976,697 | 29 / 41 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 52 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 31 recorded
11 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.