MSFT
MicrosoftNASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, MSFT has a composite score of 27.4 and a confidence label of "high," which reflects a change from "medium" to "high" confidence. The scores indicate strengths in quality (78.4) and valuation (64.2), while macro factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor are identified as top drivers. The overall signal is labeled as "mild favorable." This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.03
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.26 → $4.25 (-0.2% / 30d). 6 raised, 16 cut, 31 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 23 maintained. 95% of analysts rate Buy.
16 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 33.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 30%; 252d 24%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −34%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 60/100, drawdown 32/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · confidence_labelseverity 20
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
As of May 8, 2026, the confidence label for MSFT changed from 'medium' to 'high'. This reflects an increase in the confidence score, which is now at 80.0. The overall composite score is 27.4, with a risk label of 'elevated' and a signal of 'mild favorable'. The inputs indicate that the situation is provisional.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -2.6% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | +23 | full | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2024-12-11)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2024-12-11)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-299d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026, Microsoft Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 53 - 2025-12-085mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On December 5, 2025, Microsoft Corporation (the “Company” or “Microsoft”) held its 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting (the “Annual Meeting”). At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s shareholders approved the Company’s 2026 Stock Plan (the “2026 Stock Plan”). The 2026 Stock Plan replaces the Microsoft Corporation 2017 Stock Plan in its entirety. The mater…
executive changeneutralscore 2 - 2025-09-307mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On September 24, 2025, Carlos A. Rodriguez, a member of the Board of Directors of Microsoft Corporation (the “Company”), informed the Company of his decision not to stand for re-election at the Company’s 2025 annual shareholder meeting (the “Annual Meeting”). Mr. Rodriguez will continue to serve as a director until the Annual Meeting. His decis…
executive changeneutralscore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.