Microsoft (MSFT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-07-08
$383.34-1.41%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
Reading MSFT? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track MSFT free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-07-08
Reading MSFT? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track MSFT free→Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Systems Software: fringe margins under pressure (2q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Microsoft Cloud revenue grows at least 20% annually: Cloud revenue growth +18% vs 29%.
View ThesisMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskMicrosoft's cloud and AI infrastructure growth must continue to justify its current valuation. Revenue grew 18% year over year, and the latest earnings beat expectations. It trades at 23× P/E versus a peer median of 47×, indicating that the price reflects less growth than forecasted. The primary risk is that cloud revenue growth has slowed to 18%, below the target of at least 20%, which could lead to further valuation compression. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% below where it trades, this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-08. MSFT is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 57 analysts currently covering MSFT (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 16 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MSFT in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $383.34. As of 2026-07-09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Systems Software — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Increased competition from Amazon could impact cloud revenue growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-08. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $383.34
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $383.34.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Focus on cloud and AI infrastructure
Starbucks' AI initiative could impact Microsoft's cloud and AI focus.
Threatens: Focus on cloud and AI infrastructure
Starbucks reducing reliance on Microsoft software poses a competitive threat.
Threatens: Focus on cloud and AI infrastructure
Starbucks reducing reliance on Microsoft impacts cloud and AI focus.
Threatens: Focus on cloud and AI infrastructure
IBM's software development by a coffee chain threatens cloud competition.
Starbucks developing AI tools poses competitive threat.
Starbucks' AI initiative may impact Microsoft software sales.
Layoffs may impact operating income and cost structure.
