Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$78.73-0.97%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.73 → 2.72 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MSGE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income grows robustly in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating income grows year-over-year in fiscal 2026. | Intact | operating income declines year-over-year in fiscal 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MSGE is a live-entertainment growth business, not yet a consistent earnings compounder, because it remains loss-making on the earnings-quality measure. Its long-term thesis is intact, with full-year growth in revenue and adjusted operating income, but the evidence is mixed and confidence is medium.
The snapshot describes valuation as expensive, while also identifying MSGE as cheap versus peers; the model has low confidence, so that comparison is uncertain. The priced-in label is justified and fragility is low, meaning the snapshot does not flag unusually concentrated expectations, though the market’s exact assumptions are not provided.
In the near term, revenue and adjusted operating income growth have matched management’s stated focus, and guest attendance and entertainment revenue show demand for live events. However, fourth-quarter operating income remained negative, recent earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk. The broader sector backdrop is a headwind.
The multi-year view hinges on sustaining live-event demand and turning revenue growth into more consistent operating results. In the near term, guidance is a key swing factor; lower interest rates or continued strength from sector peers could provide a tailwind, while weaker peer results could reduce sector momentum. The Penn Station redevelopment remains uncertain because the memorandum is non-binding and definitive terms are still under negotiation.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MSGE’s growth thesis has support from stronger full-year results and live-event activity, but operating losses, a headwind sector backdrop, and uncertain project execution remain important constraints. The valuation picture is mixed and its peer comparison has low confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For the fiscal 2027 first quarter, the Company reported revenues of $217.1 million, an increase of $58.9 million, or 37%, as compared to the prior year quarter.” “In addition, the Company reported operating income of $9.7 million, an increase of $39.5 million, and adjusted operating income of $34.3 million, an increase of $27.2 million, both as compared to the prior year quarter.” Revenue was $246.260 million in 2026-Q3.
Advance redevelopment of New York Penn Station | The company is advancing redevelopment of New York Penn Station, which could add long-term value. | Improving | Consortium engagement fails or major project delays occur | MOU executed vs target: milestones by 2026 MSGE signed MOU for Penn Station redevelopment in June 2026; Q1 and Q4 earnings beats reinforce financial stability. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Other Matters The National Railroad Passenger Corporation (“Amtrak”) previously selected Penn Transformation Partners, a consortium led by Halmar Infrastructure Development, Inc. and Skanska Infrastructure Development, Inc. (collectively, the “Master Developer”) to redevelop New York Penn Station subject to the execution of various binding agreements (the “Developer Agreements”).” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows to at least $246.3M in 2026-Q3 | A primary condition in Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $246.3M. | Intact | quarterly revenue falls below $175M in any quarter through 2026-Q3 | Revenue: $217.134M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $246.3M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026217,134,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For the fiscal 2027 first quarter, the Company reported revenues of $217.1 million, an increase of $58.9 million, or 37%, as compared to the prior year quarter.” “In addition, the Company reported operating income of $9.7 million, an increase of $39.5 million, and adjusted operating income of $34.3 million, an increase of $27.2 million, both as compared to the prior year quarter.” Revenue was $246.260 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.88 → $2.72 · observed estimates
$1.16B → $1.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.88 | $1,156,226,371 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.88 | $1,156,226,371 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.79 | $1,156,736,435 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.76 | $1,179,591,525 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.72 | $1,177,842,372 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.73 | $1,181,395,206 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.73 | $1,181,395,206 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.73 | $1,181,395,206 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.73 | $1,181,395,206 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.73 | $1,181,395,206 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.73 | $1,181,395,206 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.74 | $1,181,395,206 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.74 | $1,181,395,206 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.74 | $1,181,393,062 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.72 | $1,182,793,906 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.72 | $1,182,793,906 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.72 | $1,182,793,906 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.72 | $1,182,793,906 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.72 | $1,182,793,906 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.72 | $1,182,793,906 | 5 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.