Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$77.41-0.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSGE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MSGE — litigation filed
Dated 2026-06-08
Regulation FD Disclosure. The National Railroad Passenger Corporation (“Amtrak”) previously selected Penn Transformation Partners, a consortium led by Halmar International and Skanska (collectively, the “Master Developer”) to redevelop New York Penn Station subject to the execution of various binding agreements (the “Developer Agreements”). On June 8, 2026, in connection with the proposed redevelopment of Penn Station, Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (the “Company”) announced that,…
Why it matters: Progress or problems in redevelopment can affect MSGE's long-term growth and plans.
Watch forPositive news on agreements for the redevelopment of New York Penn Station.
Also watch forThere are more legal problems or delays in the redevelopment process.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth shows less demand for live entertainment.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported at less than 2% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains above 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher concert revenues would show strong demand for live events and support revenue growth goals.
Supportive ifConcert revenues increase more than 3% year over year.
Worry ifConcert revenues grow less than 3% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if MSGE is on track to grow revenue and operating income.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported above 5% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 0% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$110 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $243 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,343 loss on $10,000 · 13.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in operating income means costs are rising or revenue is falling.
Worry ifQ4 operating income was less than $18 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 operating income was more than $18 million.
Why it matters: Higher adjusted operating income shows good cost control. It also shows strong event results.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating income increases by 15% or more year over year in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted operating income decreases or grows less than 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop over 20% shows weaker profits. This could raise worries about growth.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted operating income drops more than 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating income drops 20% or less compared to last year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in live entertainment shows high demand. This helps future revenue goals.
Supportive ifLive entertainment revenues grow more than 5% year over year.
Worry ifLive entertainment revenues grow less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The result could affect MSGE's role in the project and future earnings.
Worry ifA good ruling that lets MSGE join the redevelopment project.
Less concerning ifA bad ruling that limits MSGE's role in the redevelopment.
Why it matters: More concerts would boost revenues and support MSGE's growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe number of concerts at The Garden goes up a lot compared to last year.
Worry ifNumber of concerts at The Garden decreases or remains flat compared to last year.