Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$314.84+1.51%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MSGS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend at $7 per share | The company maintains a $7 dividend per share, supporting shareholder returns. | Intact | Dividend falls below $7 per share next quarter | Dividend per share: $7.00 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $7 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. May 8, 20267 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a sports and entertainment business with growth and separation milestones, but its earnings record is uneven rather than consistently strong. The long-term thesis is intact, though management execution is volatile and the evidence is mixed.
The valuation is tagged as stretched and is above peers, with a low-confidence estimate that expectations are ahead of the evidence. The market may be giving value to future opportunities, but the snapshot does not specify what those opportunities are or how much growth is assumed.
For the multi-year view, fiscal 2026 revenue and operating income rose from fiscal 2025 levels, and the Rangers separation was completed on October 26, 2026. Near term, results remain uneven: third-quarter adjusted operating income fell sharply year over year, and recent earnings surprises have been erratic.
The thesis depends on sustaining team demand and turning revenue growth into more consistent operating results after the Rangers separation. A guidance cut would be a negative signal, while lower interest rates or continued strength among sector peers could provide support; the evidence does not establish how likely these scenarios are.
Over the next one to three years, MSGS has evidence of business progress, but the mixed execution record and stretched valuation leave the thesis dependent on steadier results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Madison Square Garden Sports is improving its operating income, reaching $1.96 million in Q3 2026. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below zero next quarter |
Operating income: $30.906M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.96 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 202630,906,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue at or above $432 million next quarter | Revenue grew to $432.2 million in the same quarter, showing progress in market expansion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $424 million next quarter | Revenue: $278.745M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $432 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 2026278,745,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.72 → $-1.73 · observed estimates
$1.09B → $1.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.72 | $1,091,291,583 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.72 | $1,091,291,583 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.73 | $1,092,791,583 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.59 | $1,123,941,898 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.59 | $1,123,941,898 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.59 | $1,123,941,898 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.59 | $1,123,941,898 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.59 | $1,123,941,898 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.59 | $1,123,941,898 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.62 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,223 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.73 | $1,123,065,485 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.