Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$391.16+1.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSGS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 51.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 52.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MSGS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-08
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for its third quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release containing the announcement is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securit…
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show good profits and smart cost control.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $30 million for Q3.
Worry ifOperating income was under $10 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Ticket sales are a key revenue driver. Trends will indicate demand for the Knicks and Rangers.
Supportive ifTicket revenues go up by more than 5% compared to last year.
Worry ifTicket revenues go down compared to last year.
Why it matters: A spin-off could help shareholders by splitting the two businesses. This is important to management.
Supportive ifA formal announcement will explain the timeline and structure of the spin-off.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the spin-off process.
Why it matters: Lower ticket revenues show problems with attendance. This means less interest from fans.
Worry ifTicket revenues are below $100 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTicket revenues are above $100 million in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $213 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,008 loss on $10,000 · 10.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans. They can also impact stability during the change.
Watch forManagement shares positive news about the leadership change. They say things are stable.
Also watch forManagement reports issues with the leadership change. They say there is instability.
Why it matters: Sustaining strong revenue growth indicates ongoing demand for the Knicks and Rangers.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grew more than 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue grew less than 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Rising operating costs may lead to financial problems. This impacts overall profits.
Worry ifDirect operating costs are lower than in previous quarters.
Less concerning ifDirect operating costs are rising, which hurts profits.
Why it matters: Weak revenue growth signals potential challenges in demand or pricing power. This could affect future earnings.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth is reported below 2% YoY.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 revenue growth exceeds 2% YoY, indicating stronger demand.
Why it matters: Completing the spin-off could help shareholders. It will also make the business focus clearer.
Supportive ifThe spin-off is completed and announced via a press release.
Worry ifThe spin-off is delayed beyond October 2026 without clear reasons.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company confirms the $7 dividend per share in the next earnings call.
Worry ifThe company lowers the dividend below $7 per share. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: Strong leadership helps the company do well during this change.
Watch forManagement says the transition went well and did not hurt operations.
Also watch forLeadership changes can cause problems or hurt finances.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. It shows that management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a $7 dividend per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company reduces the dividend below $7 per share in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable leadership helps the spin-off. It also leads to better performance.
Supportive ifNo more executive changes will be announced in the next quarter.
Worry ifMore executives leave or there are issues in leadership roles.
Why it matters: Changes in media rights fees can affect total revenue and profits.
Watch forLocal media rights fees stabilize or increase in the next quarter.
Also watch forLocal media rights fees decrease further in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth signals continued demand for the Knicks and Rangers, supporting long-term value.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue grew over 30% from last year. This is due to playoff-related revenues.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth is below 20% year-over-year.