Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$314.84+1.51%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MSGS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MSGS — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-30
Regulation FD Disclosure. Distribution Press Release On September 30, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release in connection with approving the Distribution, a copy of which is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to…
Why it matters: Team costs rose sharply in the March quarter. The next results can show whether costs stay high after the split.
Worry ifDirect costs rise faster than revenue year over year, and operating income falls below the same quarter last year.
Less concerning ifDirect costs grow more slowly than revenue, and operating income matches or beats the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: The title run lifted playoff revenue. A new season can show whether demand stays strong without that boost.
Watch forA quarterly filing shows Knicks ticket and in-arena revenue per home game at or above last year's level.
Also watch forA quarterly filing shows Knicks ticket and in-arena revenue per home game below last year's level.
Why it matters: Changes to local TV deals cut fees in recent results. Another decline would add pressure as the company reports Knicks-only results.
Worry ifThe next quarterly filing reports local media rights fees below the same quarter last year.
Less concerning ifThe next quarterly filing reports local media rights fees at or above the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: The filing will show results without the Rangers. It will also show which shared costs remain.
Watch forThe next 10-Q reports continuing revenue and costs, and lists lower shared costs than the pro forma figures.
Also watch forThe next 10-Q shows higher shared costs that continue, or a loss from continuing operations.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $213 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,787 loss on $10,000 · 27.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.