Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Mettler Toledo (MTD)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1679.08-2.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
51.68 → 51.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MTD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EPS growth of 8% to 10% in 2026 | A primary condition in Mettler Toledo's published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY adjusted EPS growth. | Intact | adjusted EPS growth falls below 8% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 5 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EPS is forecast to be in the range of $47.15 to $47.50, representing growth of approximately 10% to 11%.” “For the full year 2026, management anticipates local currency sales will increase approximately 4% to 5% excluding tariff refunds to customers.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MTD is a quality growth business with a cyclical risk: its recent financial performance is strong, management is stable, and the sector backdrop is supportive. The long-term thesis is intact, with management’s growth priorities on track, but the valuation is expensive.
MTD is valued at a premium to peers, and the expectations gap is positive, meaning expectations appear elevated relative to the evidence. The market seems to be crediting recent execution and sector momentum; the low fragility reading suggests no specific warning signal is currently active, but the stretched tag leaves little room for disappointment.
Near term, management’s guidance points to adjusted earnings growth of 8% to 10% in 2026 and about 4% local-currency sales growth. Recent sales and earnings performance support those goals, though the Spinnaker program’s direct contribution is not separately measured. The near-term risk of missing expectations is low, but weaker employment data and a reversal of recently raised guidance are risks to watch.
The multi-year thesis hinges on management sustaining sales and earnings growth while continuing to execute on Spinnaker. A guidance cut after a recent increase could damage credibility, while continued weakness in jobs could raise recession concerns for cyclical businesses. Continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers such as TMO, DHR, and NTRA would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MTD’s growth thesis remains intact, supported by recent results and on-track management priorities. The main tension is strong execution against an expensive valuation and risks from weaker guidance or a softer economy. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Local currency sales growth of 4% in 2026 | Sales rise steadily near 4% in local currency. | Intact | local currency sales growth falls below 3% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 5 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For the full year 2026, management anticipates local currency sales will increase approximately 4% to 5% excluding tariff refunds to customers.” “Based on today's assessment, management anticipates local currency sales for the third quarter of 2026 will increase approximately 4%.” Delivery assessment Nov 1, 2026 |
Expansion of Spinnaker sales and marketing program | A supporting condition in Mettler Toledo's published investment case. The stated target is sustain expansion of Spinnaker program through FY26. | Intact | Spinnaker program expansion stalls or reverses in FY26 | Qualitative: AI-driven growth advances Spinnaker expansion News confirms AI-driven growth aligns with expanding Spinnaker program, strongly reinforcing the thesis driver. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Conclusion Kaltenbach concluded, “Our team remains agile and focused on capturing growth opportunities leveraging our sophisticated Spinnaker program and innovative product portfolio, while benefiting from trends in automation, digitalization, and onshoring investments.” “Looking ahead, we are very well positioned to drive growth with our Spinnaker sales and marketing program and innovative product portfolio while capitalizing on opportunities related to automation, digitalization, and onshoring investments around the world.” Delivery assessment Nov 1, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$51.28 → $51.76 · observed estimates
$4.43B → $4.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $51.28 | $4,432,660,740 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $51.13 | $4,431,427,090 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $51.28 | $4,432,660,740 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $51.13 | $4,431,427,090 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $51.13 | $4,431,427,090 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $51.28 | $4,432,660,740 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $51.13 | $4,431,427,090 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $51.18 | $4,429,268,500 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $51.12 | $4,431,427,090 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $51.48 | $4,437,223,030 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $51.48 | $4,437,223,030 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $51.48 | $4,437,223,030 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $51.33 | $4,439,444,696 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $51.69 | $4,437,721,040 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $51.33 | $4,439,444,696 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $51.33 | $4,439,444,696 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $51.69 | $4,437,721,040 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $51.69 | $4,437,721,040 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $51.33 | $4,439,444,696 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $51.69 | $4,437,721,040 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $51.33 | $4,439,444,696 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $51.33 | $4,439,444,696 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $51.33 | $4,439,444,696 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $51.33 | $4,439,444,696 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $51.33 | $4,439,444,696 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $51.33 | $4,439,444,696 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $51.63 | $4,439,989,130 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $51.63 | $4,439,989,130 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $51.63 | $4,439,989,130 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $51.63 | $4,439,989,130 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $51.63 | $4,439,989,130 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $51.63 | $4,439,989,130 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $51.63 | $4,439,989,130 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $51.63 | $4,439,989,130 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $51.63 | $4,439,989,130 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $51.63 | $4,439,989,130 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $51.63 | $4,439,989,130 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $51.63 | $4,439,989,130 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $51.63 | $4,439,989,130 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $51.66 | $4,438,586,845 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $51.65 | $4,438,289,784 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $51.65 | $4,438,289,784 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $51.65 | $4,438,289,784 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $51.65 | $4,438,289,784 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $51.65 | $4,438,289,784 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $51.65 | $4,438,289,784 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $51.65 | $4,438,289,784 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $51.64 | $4,438,569,780 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $51.68 | $4,440,483,928 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $51.68 | $4,440,483,928 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $51.68 | $4,440,483,928 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $51.68 | $4,440,483,928 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $51.68 | $4,440,483,928 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $51.68 | $4,440,817,261 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $51.72 | $4,440,817,261 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $51.72 | $4,443,082,173 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $51.71 | $4,443,082,173 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $51.71 | $4,443,082,173 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $51.71 | $4,443,082,173 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $51.71 | $4,443,082,173 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $51.71 | $4,443,353,025 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $51.71 | $4,443,353,025 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $51.70 | $4,443,342,306 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $51.70 | $4,443,342,306 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $51.70 | $4,443,342,306 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $51.70 | $4,443,342,306 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $51.70 | $4,443,342,306 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $51.70 | $4,443,342,306 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $51.70 | $4,443,342,306 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $51.70 | $4,443,342,306 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $51.70 | $4,443,374,831 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $51.70 | $4,443,374,831 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $51.70 | $4,443,374,831 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $51.70 | $4,443,374,831 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $51.70 | $4,443,374,831 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $51.70 | $4,443,374,831 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $51.70 | $4,443,374,831 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $51.70 | $4,443,374,831 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $51.70 | $4,443,374,831 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $51.70 | $4,443,374,831 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $51.70 | $4,443,374,831 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $51.70 | $4,443,374,831 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $51.76 | $4,443,374,831 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.