Mettler Toledo (MTD)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1345.26-0.81%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTD — director transition
Dated 2026-08-03
Director — Natalia Shuman: Natalia Shuman was appointed as a new independent director of the Company.
Why it matters: Earnings growth is a key indicator of financial health. A miss could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifReported earnings growth for Q2 below 6%.
Less concerning ifReported earnings growth for Q2 at or above 6%.
Why it matters: His experience may improve Mettler's financial plans and operations. This could help boost performance.
Supportive ifMichael J. Tokich officially joins the Board on February 5, 2026.
Worry ifThere is no news about his appointment by February 5, 2026.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is important for managing money and paying shareholders. Changes can affect stability.
Watch forFree cash flow goes up a lot compared to last quarter.
Also watch forFree cash flow decreases or remains flat compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating EPS guidance shows strong earnings growth. It shows good management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 reaches or exceeds $12.00.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 falls below $11.85.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$99 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $265 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,190 loss on $10,000 · 31.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding growth and returning capital to shareholders. It reflects financial stability.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow reported above $250 million in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow reported below $200 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company meets growth goals and market trends.
Watch forEarnings report shows strong results, exceeding growth targets.
Also watch forEarnings report shows weak results, missing growth targets.
Why it matters: Changes may show new market trends or problems inside the company. This impacts investor trust.
Watch forManagement raises the earnings outlook for Q2 2026. It is now above what people expected.
Also watch forManagement lowers the earnings outlook for Q2 2026. It is now below what people expected.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is vital for funding growth initiatives. A decline may signal financial strain.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $119 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported at or above $119 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The adjusted EPS guidance shows strong earnings growth expectations.
Supportive ifManagement confirms adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $46.30 to $46.95.
Worry ifManagement lowers the adjusted EPS guidance from the current range.
Why it matters: This will show if Mettler Toledo can keep its margin plans and profits.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating profit for Q2 shows growth compared to the prior year.
Worry ifAdjusted operating profit for Q2 is lower than last year.
Why it matters: This could change Mettler Toledo's sales and investment outlook in a changing market.
Watch forThe FOMC decision causes a positive market reaction. This boosts Mettler Toledo's stock.
Also watch forThe FOMC decision causes a negative market reaction. This makes Mettler Toledo's stock drop.
Why it matters: Her experience in technology and industrial services may influence the company's plans. This could help Mettler Toledo in the market.
Watch forGood strategic plans or changes were announced after her appointment.
Also watch forThere has been no clear impact or bad news in strategy after her appointment.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to meeting management's guidance for the year. It shows if the company can sustain its momentum.
Supportive ifLocal currency sales grew about 4% or more in Q3.
Worry ifLocal currency sales growth for Q3 falls below 3%.
Why it matters: This range indicates if the company can achieve its growth target. It reflects overall financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 lands between $12.00 and $12.15.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 is below $11.90.
Why it matters: This program is a key growth driver. Its success can enhance revenue and margins.
Supportive ifManagement talks about big progress and new projects in the Spinnaker program.
Worry ifThere are no updates or bad news about the Spinnaker program's sales impact.