MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.01-1.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
MGIC offers mortgage insurance with steady profits and low risk. It trades at a low price-to-earnings ratio of 8.95, below peers at 12.77. Earnings per share are stable around $3.06 for 2026. The company has a free cash flow yield of 11%, supporting financial strength.
Mortgage credit risk could rise, hurting earnings. Revenue growth is expected near zero, limiting upside. The insurance market may face regulatory or economic challenges that pressure margins.
The stock price is about 26% below our valuation level, reflecting cautious views on growth. Analysts expect near zero revenue growth, which aligns with current estimates. Our view sees potential for earnings stability and value recovery beyond this cautious outlook.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $3.06 in FY26
Breaks if: FCF yield falls below 11%
Breaks if: PE rises above 12.77 without earnings growth
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a focus on returning capital to shareholders. The current thesis state is watchful, as recent performance has been below industry peers, despite positive earnings reports.
The market currently prices MTG as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. The valuation suggests that investors are not fully factoring in the potential for improved performance, given the company's recent earnings beats.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable in the near term, supported by management's commitment to capital return and maintaining a strong balance sheet. However, there is moderate risk due to the recent history of misses in the industry, which could impact MTG's performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like FNF, FAF, and ACT. If these companies continue to exceed earnings expectations, it could provide a favorable environment for MTG. Conversely, any signs of weakness from these peers or changes in interest rates could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, MTG's long-term thesis is supported by stable management and a favorable sector backdrop, but it remains sensitive to broader industry performance. Not investment advice.