MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.13+1.71%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTG — earnings in line
Dated 2026-02-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The Company issued a press release on February 2, 2026 announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 and certain other information. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.
Why it matters: Q2 new insurance written was $17.8 billion. A higher Q3 figure would show growth in new coverage.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 new insurance written tops $17.8 billion.
Worry ifQ3 new insurance written falls below $14.4 billion, the Q1 2026 level.
Why it matters: This measure tracks MGIC's capital cushion. It was $2.7 billion in Q2, after $2.9 billion in Q1.
Worry ifReported PMIERs excess falls below $2.5 billion, lower than the $2.7 billion Q2 level.
Less concerning ifReported PMIERs excess stays at or above $2.7 billion.
Why it matters: MGIC has repurchased shares and approved another $750 million for buybacks through 2028. The next report can show how much it used.
Supportive ifThe Q3 report lists further share repurchases under the $750 million plan.
Worry ifThe Q3 report shows no buybacks and no new use of the $750 million plan.
Why it matters: Delinquent loans can lead to more claims. The count fell from 27,006 in Q1 to 26,152 in Q2.
Worry ifQ3 primary delinquency inventory rises above 27,006. It was 27,006 in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 primary delinquency inventory falls below 26,152. This was the Q2 2026 level.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$75 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $211 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,789 loss on $10,000 · 17.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: MGIC has used reinsurance to cover past and future policies. A new deal could add risk cover for later new business.
Supportive ifMGIC reports a signed reinsurance deal. It covers eligible new insurance written in 2028.
Worry ifMGIC reports no new reinsurance deal for 2028 new insurance written by its next annual results.