MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.01-1.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTG — earnings in line
Dated 2026-02-02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The Company issued a press release on February 2, 2026 announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 and certain other information. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.
Why it matters: Higher losses may mean more risk in the mortgage insurance portfolio.
Worry ifQ3 losses were over $15 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 losses were under $15 million.
Why it matters: More dividends show strong finances. They also show a commitment to giving back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.17 per share.
Worry ifThe company maintains the dividend at $0.15 per share.
Why it matters: Good reinsurance agreements can boost the balance sheet. They also help with risk management.
Supportive ifThey finished new reinsurance agreements in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFailure to execute any new reinsurance agreements by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More agreements would show good risk management and smart use of money.
Supportive ifLook for news on new reinsurance agreements like the $324 million deal.
Worry ifNo new reinsurance agreements announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More dividends show strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to returning money.
Supportive ifQ3 dividend declared above $0.17 per share.
Worry ifQ3 dividend remains at or below $0.17 per share.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may show less profit. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income reported below $165 million.
Less concerning ifNet income remains at or above $165 million.
Why it matters: Going over this amount shows a strong effort to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases exceed $750 million by the end of 2028.
Worry ifTotal share buybacks are still under $750 million.
Why it matters: If it falls below this level, it may mean losing customers. This could hurt future income.
Worry ifThe yearly customer retention rate is under 84%.
Less concerning ifAnnual persistency rate remains at or above 84%.
Why it matters: More share buyback announcements show a strong promise to return money to investors.
Supportive ifAn announcement of share buybacks over the $750 million limit.
Worry ifNo new announcements of share repurchases beyond the current limit.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is performing in a tough market.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) beats analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Also watch forEPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends can signal the health of the business and sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in new insurance written would signal weakening demand in the mortgage market.
Worry ifNew insurance written for Q3 is reported below $14 billion.
Less concerning ifNew insurance written for Q3 exceeds $14 billion.
Why it matters: A rising loss ratio may mean worse underwriting quality. This also shows higher risk.
Worry ifQ3 loss ratio reported above 10%.
Less concerning ifQ3 loss ratio reported at or below 10%.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show a commitment to returning capital. This could raise the share price.
Supportive ifThey announced more share repurchase plans in Q3.
Worry ifNo announcements of share repurchases in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in PMIERs available assets may mean a weaker balance sheet. This brings regulatory risk.
Worry ifPMIERs have less than $5.5 billion in available assets.
Less concerning ifPMIERs available assets are still above $5.5 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$69 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $197 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,628 loss on $10,000 · 16.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.