Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Materion Corp. (MTRN)
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$177.47-5.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.50 → 8.50 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MTRN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve EPS guidance near $6.25 for FY 2026 | Management targets EPS of $6.25 for full year 2026. | Broken | EPS guidance falls below $6.0 for FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $1.81 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $6.0 and $6.5 in FY 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20261.81 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented industrial materials business with a sector tailwind, rather than a low-risk compounder. Its multi-year view is intact, though the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.
MTRN is expensive versus peers, and the valuation evidence points to high expectations with a large expectations gap. That reading has low model confidence, while the priced-in assessment flags elevated fragility tied to valuation and execution quality.
Recent results show strong growth in sales, profit, and diluted EPS, alongside wider adjusted EBITDA margins. Management has repeated its growth and profitability priorities and is on track against them, but near-term earnings risk remains: surprises have been trending down, and the company has a history of a deep miss.
The thesis depends on management sustaining growth and margins, especially after its recent guidance increase. A guidance cut would damage credibility as well as reset expectations; continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the materials backdrop, while their misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next one to three years, MTRN has evidence of improving fundamentals and a supportive sector backdrop, but its expensive valuation and elevated execution risk make the thesis sensitive to setbacks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operational efficiencies improved gross profit by $5.66M in Q1 2026. |
| Improving |
| gross profit falls below $76M in any quarter |
Gross profit: $103.701M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: gross profit >= $81.83M next quarter (Q1 2027 equivalent). Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 2026103,701,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase net income sustainably | Net income rose to $19.37M in Q1 2026. | Broken | net income falls below $17M in any quarter | Net income: $38.332M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $19M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202638,332,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 15% annually | A primary condition in Materion Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 15% next 4 quarters | Revenue growth: 27.54% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202627.535926 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.60 → $8.50 · observed estimates
$2.38B → $2.60B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.60 | $2,384,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.60 | $2,384,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.60 | $2,384,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.60 | $2,384,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.60 | $2,384,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.60 | $2,384,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.60 | $2,384,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.60 | $2,384,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.57 | $2,377,038,775 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.60 | $2,384,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.57 | $2,377,038,775 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.60 | $2,384,440,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.57 | $2,377,038,775 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.57 | $2,377,038,775 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.69 | $2,382,774,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.27 | $2,581,280,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.27 | $2,581,280,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.69 | $2,382,774,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.27 | $2,581,280,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.69 | $2,382,774,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.69 | $2,382,774,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.69 | $2,382,774,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.69 | $2,382,774,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.69 | $2,382,774,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.69 | $2,382,774,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.69 | $2,382,774,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.30 | $2,571,574,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.30 | $2,571,574,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.30 | $2,571,574,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.30 | $2,571,574,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.30 | $2,571,574,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.30 | $2,571,574,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.30 | $2,571,574,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.30 | $2,571,574,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.30 | $2,571,574,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.30 | $2,571,574,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.30 | $2,571,574,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.30 | $2,571,574,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.30 | $2,571,574,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.30 | $2,571,574,148 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.35 | $2,564,206,413 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.50 | $2,601,574,148 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.50 | $2,601,574,148 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.50 | $2,601,574,148 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.50 | $2,601,574,148 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.50 | $2,601,574,148 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.50 | $2,601,574,148 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.50 | $2,601,574,148 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $8.50 | $2,601,566,667 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.