Materion Corp. (MTRN)
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$244.24+1.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsIndustrial MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTRN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 113.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 97.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTRN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Materion Corporation issued a press release announcing its results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth shows a recovery in materials.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported at 1% or higher in the next quarter.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported at -1% or worse in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Management expects $6.00 to $6.50 per share. This shows confidence in making money.
Supportive ifAdjusted earnings per share for 2026 lands within the guided range of $6.00 to $6.50.
Worry ifAdjusted earnings per share for 2026 falls below $6.00.
Why it matters: A cut in guidance may mean management is less confident about future earnings.
Worry ifFull-year adjusted EPS guidance was below $6.80.
Less concerning ifFull-year adjusted EPS guidance remains at or above $6.80.
Why it matters: Negative revenue growth shows a big change in market conditions and demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported as negative year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains positive year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $496 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,633 loss on $10,000 · 36.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If the materials sector shows signs of recovery, it could benefit Materion's growth. This could enhance investor sentiment.
Watch forMaterials sector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for three years.
Also watch forMaterials sector revenue growth remains negative for the next quarter.
Why it matters: A gross profit margin above 23% shows good cost management. This means operations are improving.
Supportive ifGross profit margin reported above 23% for Q3.
Worry ifGross profit margin below 23% suggests possible cost problems.
Why it matters: Net income growth confirms that revenue growth and cost control are effective. It impacts shareholder value.
Supportive ifQ2 net income rises above $20M, showing continued growth.
Worry ifQ2 net income falls below $18M, suggesting challenges in growth or cost control.
Why it matters: Better gross profit margins mean improved cost control. This matches management's goals.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves to above 20.5% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross profit margin declines or stays below 20.0% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This midpoint of the full-year guidance signals strong financial health and growth momentum.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted earnings per share reported at or above $6.25.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted earnings per share reported below $6.00.
Why it matters: A backlog growth above 30% would signal strong future sales. This would confirm the demand for Materion's products across sectors.
Supportive ifBacklog growth reported at over 30% year over year.
Worry ifBacklog growth below 30% suggests demand may be weak.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue growth in Q2 would support management's guidance and show strong demand.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported at 10% or higher year over year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: New business wins will indicate demand strength and support revenue growth across segments.
Supportive ifManagement says they have at least $15 million in new business wins.
Worry ifNo big new business announcements are expected in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows that management's plans are working. It means strong demand for products.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth year over year exceeds 30%, continuing the trend from Q1.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth year over year falls below 20%, indicating a slowdown.
Why it matters: If adjusted EPS guidance is over $7.20, it shows strong growth. This means management is confident in demand and success.
Supportive ifManagement raises adjusted EPS guidance above $7.20 for the full year.
Worry ifGuidance at or below $7.20 shows weaker expectations.
Why it matters: Strong growth in value-added sales shows demand for Materion's products. This supports revenue growth goals.
Supportive ifQ3 value-added sales growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 value-added sales growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A high EBITDA margin shows the company runs well. This helps profit grow.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays above 23% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 20% in Q3.
Why it matters: A growing backlog means strong future demand. This helps revenue grow.
Supportive ifBacklog growth exceeds 20% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifBacklog growth is below 10% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows good performance. This helps increase adjusted EPS.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $40 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls below $30 million.