Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Matrix Service Co. (MTRX)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$8.62-5.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.69 → 0.69 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MTRX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive cash from operations of at least $34 million by 2026-Q3 | Matrix Service is improving cash flow, from negative $25.9M to positive $34.2M in 2026-Q3. | Improving | Cash from operations falls below $34 million in 2026-Q3 | Cash from operations: $-8.81M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $34 million. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 3, 2026-8,810,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk operational recovery case, not a proven durable compounder: the company is still loss-making, recent performance is weak, and sector conditions are a headwind. The thesis is in a watch state, with some progress in quarterly revenue and operating losses but mixed execution on backlog and costs.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The pricing tag is justified and fragility is low, but valuation rose recently; cheapness alone does not resolve the company’s earnings and execution risks.
Near term, revenue rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026, and the operating loss narrowed slightly, but operating income remained negative. Backlog fell, while SG&A and restructuring costs rose sequentially, so evidence of cost and backlog improvement is mixed; recent earnings misses and a reported guidance reduction add risk into the next quarter.
A favorable shift would require guidance to recover next quarter and profitable growth to become more consistent. Backlog growth and lower costs also matter over the multi-year view. Sector signals are another swing factor: continued strength from PWR, FIX, and EME could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from them could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis depends on MTRX converting revenue gains into profits and reversing its backlog decline; current evidence is mixed, with elevated risk and weak recent performance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Successful CEO transition with stable leadership |
| A supporting condition in Matrix Service Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is CEO transition completed with no major disruptions. |
| Improving |
| Leadership turnover continues or disrupts operations beyond 2026-Q4 |
CEO transition completed 2026-07-02; CFO transition 2026-10-19 Shawn P. Payne promoted to CEO in July 2026; new CFO appointed in October 2026. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $870-$890 million in fiscal 2026 | Revenue guidance is stable near $870-$890 million despite project delays. | Intact | Revenue falls below $870 million in FY26 | Revenue: $219.402M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $870 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 2026219,402,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.79 → $0.69 · observed estimates
$1.00B → $0.99B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.79 | $998,174,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.89 | $1,030,327,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.89 | $1,030,327,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.69 | $985,410,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.