Matrix Service Co. (MTRX)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$8.62-5.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTRX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTRX — CFO transition
Dated 2026-10-19
CFO — Dominic A. Savarino: The filing announces the appointment of an external candidate as the new Chief Financial Officer, which is a significant management change but not a departure of a sitting executive.
Why it matters: The project drove strong Process and Industrial Facilities awards. Management said it would support revenue in fiscal 2027.
Supportive ifA company update confirms work has started and the mining project adds revenue in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifA company update reports that the project start slips, work is paused, or it adds no fiscal 2027 revenue.
Why it matters: Backlog fell from $1.03 billion to $953 million. New awards must replace work as Matrix completes projects.
Watch forThe next report shows backlog above $953.2 million and book-to-bill above 1.0x.
Also watch forThe next report shows backlog below $953.2 million or book-to-bill below 1.0x.
Why it matters: This segment's margin fell to 2.9% as revenue dropped. A recovery would ease pressure from low-margin work.
Watch forThe next report shows a gross margin above 2.9% for Process and Industrial Facilities.
Also watch forThe next report shows the segment margin at or below 2.9%, with revenue below $33.6 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$149 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $505 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,474 loss on $10,000 · 44.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.