Matrix Service Co. (MTRX)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.62+0.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTRX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -55.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 64.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTRX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-02
and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect how a company runs. Stability is important during these times.
Watch forNew CEO is announced and has a clear vision for the company.
Also watch forIf no new CEO is named, it may cause more instability.
Why it matters: Changes in revenue guidance show project timing and business health. More cuts will show how well the company handles delays.
Worry ifManagement says they expect revenue for fiscal 2026 to be between $870 million and $890 million.
Less concerning ifManagement cuts revenue guidance to less than $870 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Large project awards signal strong demand and can improve backlog and future revenue. This would indicate a recovery in client activity.
Supportive ifNew project awards are announced. They total over $100 million in high-demand areas.
Worry ifNo significant new project awards announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If the Industrials sector gets better, Matrix Service could see a better outlook.
Supportive ifThe sector is growing again. Revenue growth is above 5%.
Worry ifSector growth is slowing down. This shows ongoing challenges for Matrix Service.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$167 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $412 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,513 loss on $10,000 · 35.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is performing. It will provide insights into revenue and costs.
Watch forEarnings beat expectations and show revenue growth.
Also watch forEarnings fall short of expectations and revenue is going down.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows better operations. It can help support future growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive and exceeds $10 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations remains negative or worsens in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its weak financial status.
Watch forEarnings report shows a positive change in revenue or profit margins compared to last quarter.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows losses. There is no improvement in revenue.
Why it matters: Higher project awards would signal strong demand and support backlog growth as planned.
Supportive ifProject awards in Q3 are over $150 million. This shows strong market demand.
Worry ifProject awards are under $100 million. This suggests weaker demand and backlog issues.
Why it matters: A stable backlog shows steady project demand. This helps future revenue growth.
Supportive ifTotal backlog is over $950 million. This shows a strong project pipeline.
Worry ifBacklog is below $900 million. This raises concerns about future revenue.
Why it matters: Positive net income shows the company is making a profit and doing well.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 is over $1 million. This confirms the trend of making money.
Worry ifNet income is still negative or below $0.5 million. This shows ongoing challenges.