Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
METAVIA INC (MTVA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.34+6.35%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MTVA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
successful capital raises via debt and equity | The company raised capital through debt and equity offerings in early 2026. | Intact | Failure to raise capital or signs of liquidity distress | Qualitative: Active ATM facility (Nov 2025) vs. Target: Maintain access Nov 2025 ATM agreement with Ladenburg confirms active equity capital access; no liquidity distress events reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business whose long-term case depends on clinical programs advancing, not on a record of steady profits. The thesis is in a watch state: management has reported development progress, but recent financial performance is weak and overall confidence is low.
The evidence snapshot does not include valuation or market-expectation data, so it is not possible to say whether the shares look cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers, or what expectations are already reflected. Recent negative earnings events and a decline in the stock’s price reaction show pressure, but do not establish what the market assumes about future results.
Near-term execution risk is elevated, with a 64% estimated chance of an earnings miss next quarter; MTVA also missed earnings in May and August 2026. Over the multi-year view, DA-1726 has reached planned doses in a Phase 1 study, with topline data expected in Q4 2026, while cash increased to $12.6 million by Q2 2026 and management expects it to fund operations through 2026.
The thesis depends on clinical data and continued progress in DA-1726 and vanoglipel, alongside adequate funding as development continues. Near-term risks include a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the case rests on clinical milestones and financing progress, but weak recent performance, elevated earnings risk, and low confidence leave important uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| MetaVia cut its loss per share from -$3.69 to -$2.49 in 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS does not improve and remains below -2.49 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
stock price stabilizes above 40% drawdown | A supporting condition in METAVIA INC's published investment case. The stated target is Drawdown from high less than -40%. | Under Pressure | Drawdown worsens beyond -59% or new lows | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.41 → $-2.37 · observed estimates
$0.00B → Unavailable · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.41 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.41 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.41 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.41 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.41 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.41 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.41 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.41 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.41 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.41 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.41 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.41 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.41 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.41 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.41 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.41 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.41 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.41 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.41 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.41 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.41 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.41 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.41 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.41 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.41 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.41 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.37 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.