METAVIA INC (MTVA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.09-18.66%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
MTVA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
and Item 7.01, respectively, and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. The Company’s submission of this Report shall not be deemed an admission as to th…
Why it matters: MetaVia reported $12.6 million in cash at June 30 and said it could fund operations through 2026. The next update can show whether more funding is needed.
Worry ifA company update says cash is below $12.6 million and will not cover operations beyond 2026. It may also report a need for new funding.
Less concerning ifA company update says it has enough cash to fund operations through 2027, with no new funding.
Why it matters: The FDA talk may clarify the next clinical steps for vanoglipel. So far, its combination results come from preclinical studies.
Watch forMetaVia says it held the FDA meeting. It names a clinical path and the next study for vanoglipel combination therapy.
Also watch forMetaVia reports that it has not held or scheduled the meeting, or that the FDA asks for more work before a next study.
Why it matters: Longer treatment will test if weight and waist loss continue beyond 16 weeks. It will also show whether the 48 mg and 64 mg doses remain tolerable.
Watch forThe Q1 2027 data show more weight or waist loss than at 16 weeks, with no new serious safety issue.
Also watch forThe Q1 2027 data show weight or waist loss has stopped, or reveal a new serious safety issue.
Why it matters: This readout tests whether early weight loss continues at 48 mg and 64 mg. It also tests how well patients handle the higher doses.
Watch forThe Q4 2026 data show further weight loss from the earlier 9.1% at Day 54, with no dose-related stops or serious side effects.
Also watch forThe data show no further weight loss after Day 54, or dose-related stops or serious side effects emerge.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$244 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,250 loss on $10,000 · 12.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,184 loss on $10,000 · 91.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.