Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Minerals Technologies (MTX)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$62.59-4.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.98 → 6.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MTX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.12 per share | Profit per share should reach $5.52 in 2026. | Intact | quarterly dividend falls below $0.12 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an execution-dependent growth story in a sector with a current tailwind, not a proven steady compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent revenue growth is real, but profitability and management delivery remain uneven.
MTX is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation model shows a negative expectations gap, meaning its implied outlook is below the model’s estimate. The priced-in signal is marked justified, with low fragility, but the company’s loss-making earnings quality limits what that valuation label can say about business strength.
Near term, results have been mixed: nine-month sales rose 6 percent year over year, and operating income recovered to $64.8 million in 2026-Q3 after a litigation-related charge in Q2. Margin recovery remains incomplete, and the Consumer & Specialties segment’s Q3 operating income fell 34 percent year over year as costs remained only partly recovered through pricing. Management’s new applications could add revenue over time, but that contribution is still prospective rather than reported.
The multi-year thesis depends on sustained revenue growth, better cost recovery, and delivery on new applications. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as LIN, ECL, and SHW would support the sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken that tailwind.
Over the next one to three years, MTX has a credible growth path but needs to show more consistent margins and execution. The recent earnings beat is encouraging, while its below-peer financial performance keeps the thesis under watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Minerals Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.52 USD per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $5.52 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth above 5% annually | A primary condition in Minerals Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.6% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 5.6% next year | Revenue growth: 4.23% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5.6% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 30, 20264.226146 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage talc-related costs near $290 million | A supporting condition in Minerals Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is talc-related charges do not exceed $290 million. | Intact | talc-related charges exceed $290 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.14 → $6.57 · observed estimates
$2.31B → $2.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.14 | $2,307,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.14 | $2,307,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.14 | $2,307,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.14 | $2,307,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.14 | $2,307,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.14 | $2,307,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.14 | $2,307,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.14 | $2,307,575,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.04 | $2,307,606,064 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.07 | $2,303,750,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.07 | $2,303,750,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.07 | $2,303,750,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.00 | $2,287,875,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.07 | $2,303,770,572 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.07 | $2,303,770,572 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.00 | $2,287,875,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.00 | $2,287,875,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.07 | $2,303,770,572 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.07 | $2,303,770,572 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.07 | $2,303,770,572 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.07 | $2,303,770,572 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.07 | $2,303,770,572 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.07 | $2,303,770,572 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.07 | $2,303,770,572 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.07 | $2,303,770,572 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.07 | $2,303,770,572 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.00 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.98 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.98 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.98 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.98 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.98 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.98 | $2,287,950,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.00 | $2,290,700,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.00 | $2,290,700,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.00 | $2,290,700,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.00 | $2,290,700,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.00 | $2,290,700,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.00 | $2,290,700,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.98 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.98 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.98 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.98 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.98 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.92 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.92 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.92 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.92 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.92 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.92 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.92 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.92 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.92 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.92 | $2,288,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.88 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.88 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.88 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.88 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.88 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.88 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.88 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.88 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.88 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.71 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.71 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.71 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.71 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.71 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.71 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.71 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.71 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.72 | $2,283,412,082 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.63 | $2,280,743,311 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.57 | $2,279,843,311 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.