Minerals Technologies (MTX)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$65.83+3.77%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MTX — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-21
Other Events. On October 21, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share on the Company's common stock. The dividend is payable on December 3, 2026, to the stockholders of record on November 5, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the dividend declaration is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: The sector data says materials revenue has been shrinking, but recent signs point to a possible change. Positive growth would support a better sector backdrop.
Supportive ifThe sector's three-year revenue growth turns positive.
Worry ifThe sector's three-year revenue growth stays at or below 0%.
Why it matters: MTI moved $400 million of debt from 2028 to 2032, at a higher rate. Cash generation matters as it pays interest and funds growth.
Worry ifQuarterly cash from operations falls below $76 million, the Q3 2026 level.
Less concerning ifQuarterly cash from operations stays at or above $76 million.
Why it matters: Management said it remains on track for mid-single-digit sales growth in 2026. A miss would weaken the growth story.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 sales growth is below 4% year over year.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 sales growth reaches 4% or more year over year.
Why it matters: MTI says rare earth metal and steel slag projects could add over $200 million in revenue over five years. Early sales would show progress.
Supportive ifMTI reports revenue from either new project and names the project in a company update.
Worry ifMTI reports no sales from either project. It removes or lowers its five-year revenue estimate.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$101 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $227 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,536 loss on $10,000 · 25.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.