Minerals Technologies (MTX)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$71.76+1.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
MTX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: A steady or better margin shows good cost control. It means the company runs well.
Supportive ifOperating income margin was over 12% for Q2.
Worry ifOperating income margin was below 10% for Q2.
Why it matters: Changes to the dividend policy show management's trust in future cash flow.
Watch forManagement keeps or raises the dividend payout.
Also watch forManagement cuts the dividend payout or suspends it.
Why it matters: Updates on growth plans can show future revenue and company direction.
Supportive ifManagement will share new applications or markets on Investor Day. This event is on September 22, 2026.
Worry ifInvestor Day does not provide clear updates on growth plans or new applications.
Why it matters: If this segment keeps declining, it shows problems with consumer demand and pricing.
Worry ifQ3 Consumer & Specialties segment sales down year over year worse than -1%.
Less concerning ifSales in the Consumer & Specialties segment stay steady or grow each year.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is important for better margins. A loss shows ongoing problems.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q3 is positive. It is over $59 million.
Worry ifOperating income is still negative. It is under $59 million.
Why it matters: Changes to the dividend policy may show shifts in cash flow and financial health.
Watch forThe company raises the quarterly dividend above $0.12. This shows strong cash flow.
Also watch forThe company lowers the quarterly dividend below $0.12. This suggests cash flow issues.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company cuts or suspends the dividend in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The court's decision will affect the bankruptcy case and talc claims against BMI OldCo.
Worry ifThe District Court rules that BMI OldCo's talc does not contain harmful asbestos.
Less concerning ifThe District Court finds that BMI OldCo's talc contains harmful asbestos.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. A cut may mean bigger financial problems.
Worry ifThe dividend remains at $0.12 per share for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifThe dividend is reduced from $0.12 per share.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend policy may show shifts in how money is used or financial health.
Watch forManagement will increase the dividend per share after June 18.
Also watch forManagement cuts the dividend or suspends it after June 18.
Why it matters: The results of talc claims could greatly impact financial performance and how investors feel.
Worry ifQ3 results show no new costs for talc lawsuits beyond what is already estimated.
Less concerning ifQ3 results include new costs for talc lawsuits that are higher than current estimates.
Why it matters: Sales growth over 5% would show MTI's revenue is growing and support management's plans.
Supportive ifQ3 sales growth reported at more than 5% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth is below 5% year-over-year. This shows demand is weakening.
Why it matters: Progress in the lawsuit could help investors feel more confident. It may ease worries about financial results.
Supportive ifA settlement announcement or progress in the bankruptcy plan for talc claims.
Worry ifMore delays or bad news about talc litigation.
Why it matters: This event will show how MTI plans to grow. It may affect how investors feel and how the stock does.
Supportive ifAttendees and analysts give good feedback about MTI's growth plans during or after the event.
Worry ifNegative feedback or lack of new strategic insights shared during the event.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $272 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,525 loss on $10,000 · 15.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.