Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Murphy Oil (MUR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$36.31+1.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.27 → 3.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MUR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain capital expenditure at or below $1.3 billion | A supporting condition in Murphy Oil's published investment case. The stated target is <=1300 USD_MILLIONS. | Broken | CAPEX exceeds $1.3 billion in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $455.64M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <=1300 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026455,640,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
MUR is an energy producer with a cyclical business, meaning results can shift with the sector backdrop. Its long-term thesis is intact and recently moved from mixed to mildly favorable, though elevated risk and uneven execution across priorities remain important.
Valuation appears broadly aligned with peers, with only a small expectations gap and medium confidence in the assessment. The market setup is described as justified rather than fragile, although a turbulent sector remains a source of risk.
Near term, recent results have been strong, and production in the first two quarters of 2026 was near or above guidance; new production also came online in the third quarter. Capital spending rose to support projects, while the production and exploration priorities show mixed progress. Earnings surprises have been erratic, so a guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful risk despite the low near-term miss assessment.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on MUR sustaining production progress while keeping capital spending controlled. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it. A MUR guidance cut would be a separate negative signal.
For the 1-to-3-year view, MUR has a supportive but cyclical setup, with strong recent results offset by elevated risk and mixed execution. The thesis remains intact, but depends on delivery and the energy sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Advance long-cycle projects like Côte d'Ivoire discoveries |
| New oil discoveries in Côte d'Ivoire support long-term growth. |
| Improving |
| no material progress or setbacks on long-cycle projects over next year |
qualitative progress vs target Recent offshore discoveries and successful appraisals in Vietnam and Mauritania demonstrate continued advancement of long-cycle exploration projects. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase net production to at least 174,000 BOEPD | Murphy Oil is growing production, reaching 174,000 BOEPD in Q1 2026. | Improving | production falls below 161,000 BOEPD next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The information on our website is not part of, and is not incorporated into, this news release.” “3 PRODUCTION AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURE GUIDANCE The Company is raising its full year 2026 production range to 176,000 to 178,000 BOEPD, consisting of approximately 48 percent oil and 54 percent liquids volumes.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.09 → $3.82 · observed estimates
$3.06B → $3.23B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.09 | $3,057,564,282 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.09 | $3,057,564,282 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.05 | $3,118,514,190 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.05 | $3,118,514,190 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.05 | $3,118,514,190 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.09 | $3,118,514,190 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.09 | $3,118,514,190 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.09 | $3,118,514,190 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.12 | $3,063,268,646 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.09 | $3,118,514,190 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.09 | $3,118,514,190 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.09 | $3,118,514,190 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.09 | $3,118,514,190 | 13 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.12 | $3,063,268,646 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.05 | $3,063,268,646 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.05 | $3,091,197,880 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.05 | $3,063,268,646 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.05 | $3,063,268,646 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.05 | $3,063,268,646 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.05 | $3,063,268,646 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.05 | $3,063,268,646 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.05 | $3,063,268,646 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.05 | $3,063,268,646 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.05 | $3,063,268,646 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.05 | $3,063,268,646 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.05 | $3,063,268,646 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.92 | $3,084,667,823 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.94 | $3,089,928,868 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.94 | $3,089,928,868 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.94 | $3,089,928,868 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.94 | $3,089,928,868 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.95 | $3,089,928,868 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.95 | $3,089,928,868 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.95 | $3,089,928,868 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.95 | $3,089,928,868 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.95 | $3,089,928,868 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.95 | $3,089,928,868 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.95 | $3,089,928,868 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.95 | $3,089,928,868 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.95 | $3,089,928,868 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.92 | $3,078,538,888 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.98 | $3,056,718,980 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.98 | $3,056,718,980 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.23 | $3,060,897,897 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.23 | $3,060,897,897 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.04 | $3,060,897,897 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.07 | $3,060,897,897 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.07 | $3,060,897,897 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.07 | $3,060,939,564 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.07 | $3,060,939,564 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.07 | $3,060,939,564 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.07 | $3,060,939,564 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.08 | $3,071,680,379 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.16 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.16 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.16 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.16 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.16 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.16 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.16 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.16 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.16 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.16 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.16 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.16 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.20 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.20 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.20 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.20 | $3,092,263,712 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.20 | $3,105,103,046 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.20 | $3,106,144,621 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.27 | $3,106,144,621 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.27 | $3,106,144,621 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.27 | $3,106,144,621 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.32 | $3,118,561,287 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.32 | $3,118,561,287 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.32 | $3,118,561,287 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.32 | $3,118,561,287 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.32 | $3,118,561,287 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.32 | $3,118,561,287 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.31 | $3,118,561,287 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.31 | $3,118,562,911 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.67 | $3,179,311,827 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.70 | $3,222,058,140 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.70 | $3,222,058,140 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.68 | $3,222,057,071 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.68 | $3,222,057,071 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.74 | $3,213,910,137 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.73 | $3,211,510,780 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.73 | $3,211,510,780 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.73 | $3,211,511,773 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.82 | $3,231,317,923 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.82 | $3,231,317,923 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.82 | $3,231,317,923 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.82 | $3,231,317,923 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.82 | $3,234,024,416 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.82 | $3,234,024,416 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.82 | $3,234,024,416 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.82 | $3,234,024,416 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.82 | $3,234,024,416 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.82 | $3,234,024,416 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.82 | $3,234,024,416 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.82 | $3,234,024,416 | 9 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.