Murphy Oil (MUR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.44-2.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MUR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MUR — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-06-11
Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary — E. Ted Botner: E. Ted Botner retired from his position and Roger W. Landes was appointed as Interim General Counsel and Corporate Secretary.
Why it matters: Stability in operating income is crucial for Murphy Oil's growth plans. It shows how well costs are managed.
Worry ifOperating income is stable or higher than last quarter.
Less concerning ifOperating income drops by more than 5% from last quarter.
Why it matters: Results from this well will indicate the potential of Murphy's offshore projects. Positive results can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifGood appraisal results came out in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAppraisal results show less reserves or production than we thought.
Why it matters: Improving net income is key for investor confidence. A decline would signal ongoing issues.
Worry ifQ2 net income is over $52.9M. This is better than last quarter.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income falls below $52.9M. This shows ongoing money-making challenges.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows careful spending. This is important for long-term growth.
Supportive ifCAPEX reported within the $1.5 to $1.6 billion range for 2026.
Worry ifCAPEX over $1.6 billion may mean they are spending too much.
Why it matters: Completion of this well is crucial for boosting production and revenue in the Gulf of America.
Supportive ifChinook #8 comes online with a gross initial production rate of 15 MBOEPD.
Worry ifChinook #8 does not start as planned. It also produces less than expected.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if the company focuses on important projects.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 capital spending guidance is between $380 million and $460 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 capital spending guidance is below $380 million.
Why it matters: Sector growth impacts Murphy Oil's performance. A rebound could signal better times ahead.
Watch forSector revenue growth shows a rise back toward 6 percent or higher.
Also watch forSector revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 6 percent.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows careful spending. This is a top priority for management.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 capital spending is between $350 million and $430 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 capital spending is more than $430 million.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if cash from operations and net income are improving. This is key for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows cash from operations up year over year by more than 10%.
Also watch forEarnings report shows cash from operations down year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on these fields will show progress in long projects. Success can boost future production.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of first production from Banjo and Cello fields in Q4 2027.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in the development timeline.
Why it matters: Sector growth trends can impact Murphy Oil's performance. A return to growth can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the energy sector picks up to above 8% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth in the energy sector falls below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Good results would support the new oil find story. This would boost exploration confidence.
Supportive ifA press release says there was a successful oil find at Bubale West-1X.
Worry ifA report shows no major oil find at Bubale West-1X.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating guidance shows strong operations. This helps support growth goals.
Supportive ifQ3 total net production reported at or above 179,000 BOEPD.
Worry ifQ3 total net production reported below 171,000 BOEPD.
Why it matters: Getting first oil would prove the project is working. It would also boost cash flow.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of first oil achieved at the Lac Da Vang project.
Worry ifDelays in achieving first oil at Lac Da Vang beyond Q4 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$232 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $406 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,628 loss on $10,000 · 26.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.