Murphy Oil (MUR)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$36.31+1.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MUR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
MUR — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-06-11
Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary — E. Ted Botner: E. Ted Botner retired from his position and Roger W. Landes was appointed as Interim General Counsel and Corporate Secretary.
Why it matters: Bubale-1X found 100 feet of net pay. Results from the follow-up well will show whether the discovery extends beyond that well.
Watch forMurphy reports oil-bearing pay at Bubale West-1X. The appraisal confirms support for more development work.
Also watch forMurphy reports no oil-bearing pay at Bubale West-1X, or calls the well a dry hole.
Why it matters: Murphy said first oil was on track for late 2026. Output would show whether the Vietnam project has moved from build work to production.
Supportive ifMurphy confirms first oil at Lac Da Vang and reports production from the project in its next results.
Worry ifMurphy reports first oil has slipped, or reports no Lac Da Vang production in its next results.
Why it matters: The Gulf of America well was due online in Q4 2026. Its start and output test Murphy's development plan.
Supportive ifMurphy reports Chinook #8 online in Q4 with gross initial output near 15 MBOEPD.
Worry ifThe well is not online by year-end, or reported gross initial output is well below 15 MBOEPD.
Why it matters: Murphy's Q2 output was 168,995 BOEPD, near the low end of its full-year range. Q3 results test its production plan.
Watch forQ3 net production is at least 171,000 BOEPD, the low end of its Q3 guidance.
Also watch forQ3 net production is below 171,000 BOEPD, the low end of its Q3 guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$192 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $422 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,628 loss on $10,000 · 26.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.