Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MicroVision, Inc. (MVIS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.24-3.88%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MVIS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve gross profit to at least $363,000 in Q1 2026 | Gross profit jumped from -$16.1M to $363K, showing better cost control. | Improving | gross profit falls below -$16.1M | Gross profit: $1.199M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $363,000 in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 20261,199,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not an established compounder: it is still loss-making and has elevated risk. The thesis is in a watch state, though recent momentum and management signals improved and the latest earnings event was positive.
The valuation model shows a durable premium of 1.58 versus peers, with an expectations gap of -1.5, suggesting expectations are ahead of the evidence. The premium is marked as justified, but confidence is medium and the company has yet to show that commercial activity can support sustainable financial performance.
Near-term, revenue has risen from $0.935 million in Q1 2026 to $2.4 million in Q3, with new defense programs and commercial contracts reported. But Q3 operating income remained negative at $21.337 million, operating expenses were higher than a year earlier, and management’s cost and cash-burn progress is mixed. Erratic recent earnings and a 44% estimated miss probability make the next results an important watch point.
Over the next few quarters, the central question is whether reported contracts and portfolio expansion translate into sustained revenue while losses and cash use narrow. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; steadier sector results or lower interest rates could provide a more supportive backdrop, but would not resolve company-level execution risks.
The 1-to-3-year view remains uncertain: commercial momentum has improved, but valuation expectations are demanding relative to limited revenue and continued losses. The thesis depends on durable revenue growth and better cost control. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in MicroVision, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $935,000 in Q1 2026. |
| Improving |
| quarterly revenue falls below $223,000 |
Revenue: $2.4M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $935,000 in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 20262,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Announce and leverage strategic partnerships to drive growth | Strategic partnerships support growth. | Improving | no new strategic partnerships announced in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.17 → $-2.40 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.17 | $20,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.16 | $22,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.17 | $20,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.16 | $22,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.17 | $20,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.17 | $20,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.17 | $20,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.17 | $20,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.16 | $22,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.17 | $20,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.17 | $20,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.17 | $20,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.17 | $20,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.17 | $20,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.40 | $22,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.17 | $20,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.17 | $20,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.17 | $20,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.40 | $22,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.40 | $22,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.40 | $22,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.40 | $22,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.40 | $22,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.40 | $22,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.40 | $22,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.40 | $22,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.40 | $21,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.