Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Western Financial, Inc. (MYFW)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.74-2.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.67 → 2.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MYFW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Repurchase up to $5 million of common stock | The company is buying back $5 million of stock, showing strong capital return discipline. | Intact | Buyback authorization is withdrawn or not executed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small regional banking business with a measured, execution-led multi-year view, rather than a clear turnaround or high-growth story. The thesis is on watch: management priorities show progress, but recent financial performance remains well below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to MYFW as cheap versus peers, while another shows a substantial premium, and the overall value assessment is expensive. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility and no sign that expectations are unusually vulnerable; the evidence does not show exactly what operating results the market assumes.
In the near term, loan and deposit growth, a higher net interest margin, improved expense efficiency, and fewer non-performing assets show progress on management’s stated priorities. Recent earnings included two beats and one in-line result, and company momentum improved, though weak relative performance and a 25% estimated miss probability remain watch points. A guidance cut or falling rates could weigh on the business and sector.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued loan and deposit growth, margin and expense progress, and disciplined asset quality. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while sustained strength from financial-sector peers could support sector momentum; the effect of rate cuts is another risk.
Over a 1 to 3 year horizon, MYFW shows tangible execution progress, but the long-term thesis remains on watch because relative financial performance is weak and the valuation signals are mixed, with the overall assessment expensive. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in First Western Financial, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.44 USD per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $2.44 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.60 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.44 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20260.6 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase loan demand with disciplined underwriting | Loan demand and operational improvements support future growth. | Intact | Loan demand declines or underwriting standards weaken materially | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.84 → $2.70 · observed estimates
$0.13B → $0.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.84 | $126,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.84 | $126,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.84 | $126,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.84 | $126,650,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.84 | $126,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.68 | $123,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.67 | $124,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.67 | $124,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.67 | $124,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.67 | $124,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.67 | $124,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.67 | $124,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.67 | $124,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.67 | $124,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.67 | $124,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.67 | $124,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.67 | $124,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.67 | $124,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.67 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.67 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.67 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.67 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.67 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.67 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.67 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.63 | $124,066,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.67 | $124,666,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.67 | $124,666,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.67 | $124,666,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.70 | $125,500,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.70 | $125,500,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.70 | $125,500,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.70 | $125,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.70 | $125,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.