First Western Financial, Inc. (MYFW)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.36-0.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · MYFW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
MYFW — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-23
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
Why it matters: More loan demand shows good underwriting. This can increase revenue.
Supportive ifLoan demand increases by more than 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifLoan demand decreases or remains flat compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: An increase in non-performing assets could signal credit quality issues. This may lead to higher provisions for credit losses.
Worry ifNon-performing assets are over $17 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets are under $16 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback plan shows strong capital allocation and can boost share value.
Supportive ifThe company completes the repurchase of the full $5M in common stock.
Worry ifThe company does not follow the buyback plan. It buys back less than $5M.
Why it matters: Growth in net interest income shows the company can grow its loans and deposits.
Supportive ifNet interest income for Q3 exceeds $21.8 million, representing more than 4.3% growth from Q2.
Worry ifNet interest income growth is less than 4.3% compared to Q2.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$101 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $226 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,338 loss on $10,000 · 13.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector growth could impact MYFW's performance and investor sentiment.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable non-interest income shows a good mix of revenue and strong fee management.
Supportive ifNon-interest income for Q3 stays above $6.4 million.
Worry ifNon-interest income falls below $6.4 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong EPS growth shows that the company is improving operations and managing costs well.
Supportive ifQ2 diluted EPS reported above $0.88, showing over 40% growth year over year.
Worry ifQ2 diluted EPS reported below $0.63 or growth less than 40% year over year.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio means better cost control. It shows the company operates well.
Supportive ifEfficiency ratio falls below 74.0% in Q3.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio stays above 74.0% in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in the net interest margin could signal rising costs or poor asset mix. This would impact profitability.
Worry ifNet interest margin reported below 2.90% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains at or above 2.90% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth may show weaker demand or more competition in the market.
Worry ifTotal loans held for investment grow less than 1% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal loans held for investment grow by 1% or more in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More non-performing assets could mean higher credit risk. This can hurt overall asset quality.
Worry ifNon-performing assets exceed 0.50% of total assets in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets remain at or below 0.50% of total assets in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Starting stock buybacks can show management believes in the company's value. It may help shareholders.
Supportive ifThere was an announcement of stock buybacks in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo stock buybacks were reported in Q3 2026.