Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
MYR Group, Inc. (MYRG)
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$263.89-9.50%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.45 → 15.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for MYRG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS grows to at least $11.47 in FY26 | A primary condition in MYR Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=11.47 USD per share. | Broken | EPS falls below $11.47 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $3.82 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=11.47 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20263.82 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-focused industrial contractor with recent strong financial performance and a growing backlog. The long-term thesis is intact, but mixed integration and execution evidence, along with elevated risk, keep the picture from being one of consistent delivery.
The valuation evidence points to MYRG being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain below the model’s view. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility and medium confidence, so the evidence does not point to highly concentrated expectations.
Near-term results have been strong: quarterly revenue and backlog increased year over year, and gross margin improved, with management citing better productivity and favorable job close-outs. The latest event was an earnings beat, but project inefficiencies remain, and recent peer misses add risk; a guidance cut on the next call is a stated downside trigger.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on sustaining growth, integrating Valley and Comet, and maintaining disciplined project execution and margin progress. Sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strength from bellwethers could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For a 1 to 3 year view, MYRG has improving growth and margins, with an intact thesis and a valuation assessment that is cheap versus peers. Execution, acquisition integration, and sector trends remain the main uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in MYR Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=64.7 million USD. |
| Improving |
| Operating income falls below $64.7M in any quarter |
Operating income: $85.106M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=64.7 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 202685,106,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 11.7% in next 12 months | A primary condition in MYR Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=11.7% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 11.7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 32.47% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=11.7% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202632.473906 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.47 → $15.31 · observed estimates
$4.59B → $5.23B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.47 | $4,593,055,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.47 | $4,593,055,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.47 | $4,593,055,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.47 | $4,593,055,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.47 | $4,593,055,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.47 | $4,593,055,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.47 | $4,593,055,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.60 | $4,682,431,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.59 | $4,717,671,736 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.83 | $4,784,431,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.89 | $4,872,296,736 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.83 | $4,784,431,670 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.89 | $4,872,296,736 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.89 | $4,872,296,736 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.89 | $4,872,296,736 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.89 | $4,872,296,736 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $14.22 | $4,884,998,330 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.89 | $4,872,296,736 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $14.38 | $4,992,565,000 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.89 | $4,872,296,736 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.89 | $4,872,296,736 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.89 | $4,872,296,736 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.89 | $4,872,296,736 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.89 | $4,872,296,736 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.89 | $4,872,296,736 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.89 | $4,872,296,736 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.45 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.46 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.46 | $5,084,484,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.45 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.45 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.45 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.45 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.45 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.45 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.45 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.45 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.45 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.45 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.45 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.45 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.45 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.45 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.34 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.34 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.34 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.34 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.34 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.34 | $5,084,481,437 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.40 | $5,104,137,813 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.46 | $5,121,522,958 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $15.01 | $5,180,875,208 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $15.01 | $5,180,875,208 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $15.01 | $5,180,875,208 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $15.15 | $5,192,125,208 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $15.31 | $5,228,578,396 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.