Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Niagen Bioscience, Inc. (NAGE)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.10-16.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.15 → 0.09 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NAGE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective execution of $20M share repurchase program | The company expanded its buyback program to $20M. | Intact | Buyback program is reduced or not executed as planned | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NAGE is a small-cap growth business with a consumer e-commerce growth plan, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and near-term risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence describes NAGE as cheap versus peers, with a justified priced-in assessment and low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not point to especially demanding expectations, though it does not establish how much future growth is assumed.
Recent financial performance is strong relative to the industry, and the latest reported earnings were in line after an earlier miss. Management is increasing sales and marketing spending and executing on its expanded share repurchase authorization. Near term, a guidance cut or weakening jobs data could pressure results and confidence; the next earnings period also carries elevated miss risk.
Over the next year, the e-commerce plan hinges on whether 10–15% growth in 2026 continues, supported by Tru Niagen sales and direct-to-consumer growth. A guidance cut or further job-market weakness would weigh on the multi-year thesis, while continued strong results and higher guidance from healthcare sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
For the 1–3 year view, NAGE’s strong recent performance and growth plans keep the thesis intact, while small-cap execution risk and the possibility of weaker guidance remain key constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins and costs are stable. |
| Broken |
| expense outlook worsens or margins decline materially in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 18% in 2026 | A primary condition in Niagen Bioscience, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=18% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 18% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -19.99% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=18% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-19.990584 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company believes 2026 is an important year of strategic investment and continues to expect operating expenses to increase as it invests across commercial, research and administrative functions to support these strategic priorities, while continuing to focus on disciplined capital allocation and positive cash flow from operations.” “Operating Expense increased 26%, or $3.8 million, to $18.4 million, reflecting planned investments to support brand growth and commercial activities.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.28 → $0.09 · observed estimates
$0.17B → $0.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.28 | $165,060,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.28 | $165,060,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.28 | $165,060,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.28 | $165,060,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.28 | $165,060,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.28 | $165,060,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.29 | $165,060,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.29 | $163,060,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.27 | $163,060,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.29 | $162,353,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.27 | $162,353,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.27 | $162,353,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.27 | $162,353,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.27 | $162,353,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.16 | $155,078,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.10 | $155,298,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.10 | $155,298,800 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.16 | $155,078,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.16 | $155,078,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.16 | $155,078,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.16 | $155,078,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.16 | $155,078,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.16 | $155,078,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.16 | $155,078,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.16 | $155,078,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.16 | $155,078,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.15 | $155,306,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.12 | $150,186,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.12 | $150,186,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.12 | $150,186,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.12 | $150,186,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.12 | $150,186,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.12 | $150,186,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.12 | $150,186,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.12 | $150,186,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.12 | $150,186,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.12 | $150,186,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.12 | $150,178,760 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.12 | $150,178,760 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.12 | $150,178,760 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.12 | $150,178,760 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.12 | $150,178,760 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.12 | $150,178,760 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.12 | $150,178,760 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.10 | $149,081,660 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.10 | $149,081,660 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.10 | $149,081,660 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.10 | $149,081,660 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.10 | $149,081,660 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.09 | $147,471,900 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.09 | $147,471,900 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.