Niagen Bioscience, Inc. (NAGE)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.17+1.93%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NAGE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 29.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 399 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NAGE — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-04
and the exhibit hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, (the “Securities Act”) or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Increased investment could lead to higher sales growth. This is key for future performance.
Supportive ifManagement plans to raise the sales and marketing budget by more than 15%.
Worry ifManagement cuts the sales and marketing budget or keeps it flat.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the health care sector speeds up, it could help Niagen's performance. This could improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifHealth care sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealth care sector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher investment in sales and marketing could drive future growth and improve market reach.
Supportive ifSales and marketing spending is up from last quarter.
Worry ifSales and marketing spending is steady or down.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can change how much people spend and what companies pay.
Watch forEarnings show resilience despite any interest rate changes from the FOMC.
Also watch forEarnings drop sharply after the FOMC decision.
Why it matters: This growth is key for Niagen's financial health and future plans. It shows how well the Tru Niagen brand is doing.
Supportive ifE-commerce sales grow by 10-15% each year as expected.
Worry ifE-commerce sales grow by less than 10% each year.
Why it matters: This will show if the company's growth is slowing, which could worry investors.
Worry ifQ2 net sales growth is reported below 10% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ2 net sales growth is reported at or above 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Starting these studies is important for the future of the drug program. It shows progress in making treatments for rare diseases.
Supportive ifNB4168 preclinical studies will start as planned in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNB4168 preclinical studies may be delayed or canceled after Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better expense management can help profits. This matters for financial health.
Supportive ifGeneral and administrative costs drop by more than 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifExpenses increase or stay the same year over year.
Why it matters: Strong sales of Tru Niagen are vital for overall revenue. It indicates customer demand and brand strength.
Supportive ifTru Niagen sales grow each year, staying at or above $24.2 million.
Worry ifTru Niagen sales drop each year or fall below $24.2 million.
Why it matters: This growth confirms management's strategy and shows demand for Tru Niagen. It is key for future revenue.
Supportive ifE-commerce growth in Q3 meets or exceeds 10% year-over-year.
Worry ifE-commerce growth in Q3 is below 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Higher investment in sales and marketing can drive growth and brand recognition. This is important for overall performance.
Supportive ifSales and marketing expenses increase by more than $1.6 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSales and marketing expenses do not increase or decrease in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting the $20 million target shows good use of funds and faith in the company.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases reach or exceed $20 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases remain below $20 million by the end of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$226 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $594 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,109 loss on $10,000 · 71.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.